Cuba: Year in Review 2009

Above, see the full Great Decisions Television episode on Cuba from this fall.

Overview

Cuba has had a difficult year as its economy suffered from (1) the lingering effects of three hurricanes in 2008 and (2) the strain that continuing global economic downturn has had on state coffers as exports and foreign investment declined. The U.S. embargo certainly continued to take its own toll on the Cuban economy and on human capital development on the island, and was renewed for another year even as the United Nations General Assembly condemned it in a decisive 187-3 vote. Havana’s ties with many foreign powers have grown stronger, in particular with Venezuela, through ALBA and PetroCaribe; with the EU, as Spain moves to eliminate the EU Common Position and entirely normalize EU-Cuba relations come January 2010; and with a number of Asian countries, including Vietnam, Japan, and also China, whose president (Hu Jintao) has visited Cuba twice since gaining office—more times than he has visited any other Latin American country. Cuban relations with the United States, however, continue in limbo. President Obama relaxed Cuban-American travel regulations and rules regarding telecommunications access to Cuba, and expressed his willingness to move past antiquated policy; President Castro similarly claimed Havana will talk to the United States about “anything.” But each side demands further concessions from the other—Havana wants the embargo repealed and Washington wants proof of greater respect for human rights and political participation—and neither has yet budged. Even lower-level discussions on migration, an issue which both sides agree must not be political, have been postponed until 2010.

Person of the Year

Raúl Castro, whose profile is so much lower than that of his older brother Fidel, is the decision-maker that has made the most impact on the the island this year. Despite Human Rights Watch’s recent report, “New Castro, Same Cuba,” and the implications of such a title, Cuba under Raúl is a bit different and Raúl’s ideas differ in several important ways from Fidel’s. Holding of political prisoners and arbitrary detentions of dissidents remain a problem, indeed. But Raúl’s project to decentralize agriculture, long an inefficient state-run enterprise, has proceeded during 2009. His decrees have made access to the internet, cell phones and laptops more common, though practical ability to purchase these luxuries remains dismally low. Even as Fidel in his writing has insistently expressed anti-American views and negativity about improving relations with the United States, Raúl has not echoed this sentiment, and instead has claimed openness to discussions. Raúl also, while refusing to bend from the title of “socialism,” has been open to market-friendly changes, implementing wage reforms and slowly changing the age-old system of rations this year.

His leadership leaves more to be desired, but even with the specter of Fidel continuing to loom large in the press and abroad, Raúl has been the key actor in Cuba this year, determining its trajectory.

Most unexpected event

In March, Raúl surprised many in Cuba and abroad by reshuffling a long stagnant presidential cabinet. The shake-up was not necessarily a progressive move, however: the average age of Cabinet members remained quite high afterward; Raúl’s military cronies were given high ranks; and indeed, many onlookers believed that the reshuffle was to get rid of leaders who had strayed too far from the pack. In fact, soon afterward, Fidel called Carlos Lage and Felipe Perez Roque—two of those removed from their posts—“unworthy” individuals who had been “seduced by the honey of power.”

What to watch for in 2010

Keep an eye on bloggers in Cuba, and on development of technology and Internet and its increasingly important role in people’s lives on the island. Expect, perhaps, a more visible reaction by the state to these trends. Pay attention to Havana’s foreign ties, in particular those with its two most important partners, Venezuela and China, with the EU, and with the United States as all of these relationships continue to change. Watch the Cuban-American community in Miami and the effect of its demographic shifts: will the U.S. Congress finally have the support to eliminate the travel ban, or even the embargo? Much depends on the prevailing winds in this group.

The Cuba Blog will continue to follow all of these issues in the year ahead. Thank you for your readership and participation in 2009.