By: Joel Davis
Note: This post reflects the views of the author, not those of the Foreign Policy Association. The author is an independent contributor.
The classic book The Guns of August is not exactly standard summertime beach reading material. It is, however, a book I like to turn to every once in a while to remind me of the role of folly in international affairs. In the book, author Barbara Tuchman studiously examines the role of misconception, misperception and hubris in the tragedy that was then known as the Great War and is now known as World War I. Next year marks the 100th anniversary of the outbreak of the war and so I was wondering if there are any contemporary events that lend themselves to the cautionary warning offered by her classic work. My thoughts immediately turned to the conflict in Syria.
I know what you’re thinking — the civil war in Syria does not compare to a world war, and that’s certainly true, but the alleged use of chemical weapons yesterday in Syria hearkens back to the use of mustard gas in WWI and is sure to prompt some kind of response (hopefully measured) by the U.S and the West in defense of the notion birthed in that war that the use of chemical weapons will not be tolerated by civilized nations. The situation in Syria remains murky and we would be wise to wait for a more formal assessment, but even before this latest attack, the potential for miscalculation was great. After all, any time you have a superpower (
the U.S.), great powers (
EU,
Russia) and regional powers (
Iran and Hezbollah v.
Qatar and Saudi Arabia) all determined to send arms to the competing sides in a civil war, the situation is far from stable.
And now we turn to the
alleged chemical weapons attack on civilians in Syria. I say alleged only in the sense that the use of chemical weapons has not been proven, though it seems clear that something happened. What will the U.S. do if, after a careful investigation by U.N. inspectors (who conveniently just happen to be in the country), the use of chemical weapons is verified? The calls for intervention will surely increase, with some action all but assured. I’m reminded of one of the prime lessons of
The Guns of August, the confrontation between harsh reality and the cavalier belief by the great powers of that time that they could enter into a quick war, achieve their aims and be done with it. Despite modern battle lines clearly drawn in Syria between powerful armies of East and West as well as sectarian Sunni and Shia rivals, I wonder if the same mistake is about to be made? Just a quick intervention, purely for humanitarian reasons, nothing to worry about; it will be over by Christmas.
