The context of the Caribbean

I was recently told, rather unceremoniously, that Cuba’s neighbors in the Caribbean are quite content with a Castro regime in Havana. Apparently these small countries ‘dread’ a regime change, an evolution of the form of government, or an end to the embargo. This point merits special discussion.

The reason for such sentiment, of course, is that other Caribbean islands consider Cuba competition for the main drivers of their economies: tourism, foreign investment, agricultural production and energy resources. An open Cuba would be a fierce competitor on these fronts as the largest Caribbean island, one only 90 miles from the United States, and one with great energy and agricultural potential. For today, let’s tackle the tourism sector concern.

Tourism in the Caribbean accounts for 15% of the region’s GDP, 13% of total employment, and 18.2% of total export earnings according to the World Travel and Tourism Council. As Cuba further engages with the global economy and if Obama lets down travel barriers, as many in the administration have suggested he will do soon, the island will almost certainly attract many of the tourists that might otherwise head to other Caribbean islands.

Analytic studies show that because of the high price of travel from the United States to Cuba, tourists that would otherwise be visiting Cuba are instead flying to the Bahamas, Jamaica or Aruba. With travel restrictions down, flight prices from the United States to Havana would drop and these individuals would head to their first choice. However, those same studies show that some Caribbean nations (like the Dominican Republic) might actually see their tourism numbers grow with the end of the U.S. travel ban. The ultimate effect isn’t necessarily a given.

And there are steps that could and should be taken that would help soften for the tourism industry of many Caribbean nations an eventual transition period to a more open Cuba. Some of the best ideas in that connection detail cooperative initiatives among the islands of the Caribbean (including Cuba). For example, the nations could work together on marketing efforts that encourage and enable easy multiple destination tourism, where each place develops its own comparative advantage or specialized focus. Or they could work together on new angles for the Caribbean tourism sector as a whole to provide health tourism, faith-based tourism and ecotourism, the current and ‘new’ high-demand markets.

This Wilson Center conference report offers the perspectives of several prominent leaders from the region on this issue.