The answers re political succession and continuity

These are actually by no means “the” answers. But here are mine:

Are Communist Party officials a bit overoptimistic when they say, as they frequently do, that “the future of the Revolution is guaranteed”?

Overoptimistic yes, but completely off base, no. Many Cubans beyond the so-called “dissident” community are frustrated with the Cuban political and economic system in its current state. And although Havana places the blame for the nation’s woes squarely on the shoulders of the United States for its embargo, internal problems of mismanagement and excessive centralization and secrecy have a share of the responsibility. Still, none of this means a transition to a capitalist system—so in that sense, the future of the Revolution is likely to be one of continued evolution, but not extinction.

What will happen when the lives of the current leaders do end?

That’s the question, isn’t it? That is the future that Washington and Miami have anxiously awaited for years and now seem to realize might not emerge as a moment of release after all. First of all, when Fidel ceded power to his younger sibling, nothing fell apart. We saw continuity. Second of all, Fidel and his brother Raúl have lasted long past when onlookers began predicting the “end.” Although we are seeing many of the old guard stepping down (even in recent weeks, the most recent being the Attorney General of Cuba, Juan Escalona Reguera, who resigned for health reasons on Tuesday), there have been smooth transitions to fill these positions. Even (dare I say it) the death of Fidel Castro at this point could feasibly come and go with little affect on the day-to-day operations of Cuban leadership.

Will young Cubans carry on the current economic model? Or will a new generation of Cubans opt for a less paternalistic and less centralized system?

The lessons provided by over 50 years of experience are already pushing Cuba toward the latter. Ration books, the ultimate piece of the paternalistic system, are being scaled back and possibly phased out. Private enterprise is gaining a little bit more of a foothold. And economically, slow decentralization is now closer to the norm. That’s the direction in which Cuba is moving, with support (and sometimes great hesitation) from many Cubans.

Will the transition be smooth and gradual, or will there be turmoil?

This question is the most difficult to answer, as there are too many variables. What will Cuban-Americans, and in particular, certain segments of the Miami community, do upon hearing of the death of Fidel Castro, when that day comes? What will Washington do? If they try to jump into a perceived chasm, as some appear ever-ready to do, there could certainly be dangerous conflict—turmoil indeed.

If they stay out, Cuba will determine its own fate, as much of its population has long desired.

(Photo by Calixto N. Llanes)