South Sudan: You Got What You Wished For! Now What?

The congratulations have rolled in from around the world. As has United Nations recognition. And a new currency. And of course a new president in Salva Kiir. People have celebrated in the streets and generally speaking a mood of hope and optimism and happiness prevails. Exiles from years of civil war and devastation have returned.

South Sudan, yes, congratulations — you are now a new, independent nation state. Independence represents a high water mark. Now the hard work begins and reality sets in.

For one thing, don’t be fooled by the joyous mood and the world’s hosannahs (and, yes, self-congratulations). The fact is that you still have an intractable, not especially trustworthy, (and relatively speaking more powerful) neighbor to the north. And with that neighbor, even as some urge peaceful relations, you still have to address contested areas such as South Kordofan and Abyei. New borders equal new problems.

Domestically, the economic realities are, well, grim. Independence is no panacea and there are plenty of anxious days to come (on both sides of the border). By almost any measurement (health care, standard of living, literacy, etc.) the Republic of South Sudan appears set to hang around the lowest rungs on world rankings for some time. In short, there are as many unresolved problems as reasons for hope and quite possibly more.

So, yes, congratulations. But think of this as the midway point of a long, fraught journey and not the end of one. But do not be surprised when the joy of independence gives way to reality, some of which might seem quite harsh in comparison to the elation that you have just seen. These realities have hit newly independent countries arguably better equipped than you and they have often not handled things well at all.