Saudi Arabia: The Fear of Change and the Yemeni Dilemma

It all started with the death of an unknown and poor fruit seller in the streets of Tunisia. Little did the world realize that one man’s desperate act of retaliation against a regime that had robbed him from his future and dignity would set ablaze revolutionary sentiments of such intensity that they would bring about the end of dictatorships in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. Mohamed Boua’zizi’s cry of anger resonated throughout the Middle East; his pain was all too familiar to the millions of Arabs leaving under oppressive regimes. This time they decided that they would no longer bow down….

But what started on the North African shores, now known as the Arab Spring movement, is spreading deeper into the Arab World. It is taking root in the heart of a land where monarchies are set in stones and where no room is left for change.

For centuries, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has ruled over the Arabic Peninsula unmatched and unchallenged by its smaller or poorer neighbors. Known as the kingmaker of the region, Saudi Arabia has proven to be a leading force against the Arab Spring. It is not in the interest of the House of Saud to allow change in the region. Any modification in the political structure could spell out the end of the Saudi hegemony. Very much like Colonel Gaddafi in Libya, King Abdullah could also be called the King of the Arabic Peninsula- as was evidenced when the Saudi King ordered the destruction of the opposition in Bahrain, sending out Saudi troops to quell peoples’ rising discontent.

The Saudi monarchy could not allow a King to be ousted so near their lands; such a victory would only feed the revolutionary sentiment brewing in Saudi Arabia itself. The underlying threat of a Shia led revolution similar to that of Iran in the 1970’s also inspired the Saudi King to act decisively against the Bahraini political and religious factions.

Ali Abdullah Saleh, a difficult Ally

With Yemen, the situation is a bit more complicated. Though a republic, not a kingdom, Yemen is not viewed as a potential threat to Saudi Arabia’s political ideology. Historically the Saudi kingdom has always wanted to keep Yemen under control by weakening their central government, by way of the tribes, and by keeping its political factions divided.

Yemen would present too great a threat if its actors were allowed to unite and act in a common vision. With a population of 24 million, Yemen is the most populous country of the Arabic Peninsula. Add to that a reported 3 weapons per inhabitants and Yemen cannot, for Saudi Arabia’ sake, be allowed to prosper.

Since the fall of the Imams, the Saudi kingdom has used tribes as a counterweight to the government, and has infiltrated the political factions as to ensure the loyalty of Yemeni policy makers. This constant meddling in Yemeni affairs is actually antagonizing the population to such an extent that many in the youth movement are advocating a rupture in relations with the Saudi. Even though Yemen still remembers that angering the Kingdom does not go without consequences, a group of politicians are said to be ready to look elsewhere for support. “If Saudi Arabia insists in treating Yemen as a vassal, we will consider new alliances… Iran might offer better prospects”, said a member of the JMP who wished to remain anonymous.

Back in the Gulf War, Saudi Arabia punished President Saleh for supporting Saddam Hussein against the Kuwaiti by deporting all Yemeni workers from its territories and cutting all financial aid. The repercussions of this lack of funding are felt in Yemen to this day.

Now, if the Saudi King seems to favor the continuation of Saleh’s rule over Yemen, there are others powerful players within the Royal family who have different alliances. Prince Nayef for instance, who is the Saudi Interior Minister and the man in charge of the Yemeni affairs, is on very friendly terms with Yemeni General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, a famous defected General and well known Islah member. Prince Nayef is also encouraging Salafists and Islamists to play a greater part in Yemen’s political life by supporting them financially. For a man whose son is in charge of fighting al-Qaeda in the region it is an interesting position. Sheikh Sadeeq al-Ahmar and his brother Hameed are also seen by the Royal family as possible contenders to the presidency. If the brothers have agreed to the Saudi ceasefire it is in the hope to position themselves well enough in the Royals’ eyes to become the next Saudi appointed Yemeni leaders.

What Saudi Arabia wants is a resemblance of stability in Yemen, enough to not threaten its own security. As to who rules Yemen, the King could care less. He only stood by Saleh as he had been a faithful and easily manipulated ally throughout the years, and had learned that challenging the Saudi could only cause him misery.

Now that Saleh is receiving medical treatment in Riyadh following the attack on his presidential compound, it is unlikely that King Abdullah will allow him to return to Yemen as acting president. Although reluctant to give a clear statement on their position towards Saleh, the Saudi know all too well that a return would lead to catastrophic repercussions. Yemen which has become a time bomb over the past few months, on the brink of civil war.

Friends or Foes?

Saudi Arabia has had, to say the least, a schizophrenic relationship with Yemen, at times extending a generous helping hand to stabilize the finances of the country, at times supporting and arming Yemen’s enemies.

Unlike Bahrain, Yemen is much harder to control politically and the methods used in Pearl Square would never apply to Sana’a. A show of force would call only for more violence and bloodshed. And although Yemen is tribal and fragmented on the surface, it stands united as a society. Unlike Bahrain, sectarianism is not an issue, there is no Shia-Sunni divide here.

If Saudi Arabia wants to ensure its own security it will have to find a man not only capable of commanding enough popular support to set up a viable government, but also one pliable to its will. This is where Saudi’s interests and Yemeni’s future might come at a crossroads.

If the King favors General Ali Mohsen and the al-Ahmar’s clan, Yemeni have such a deep hatred for what they represent that they will never agree to see them occupy the highest position in the country. Under significant pressure from the youth movement, the JMP has already threatened to create a transitional council of technocrats, following in the footsteps of the Libyan Revolution. For obvious ideological reasons, Saudi Arabia will never endorse such a democratic system. Which brings us back to a dangerous interest led stalemate. If the King could support a dictatorial presidency without flinching; a fair, representative and lawful democratic system would only undermine his authority and maybe his legitimacy.

Saudi Arabia is now caught between two evils: instability in the region or the birth of democracy. But in this ideological and political maze, the solution might lie with the once designated heir to the throne: Ahmed Saleh. The new de facto ruler of Yemen, he could initiate a new political alliance between the various factions and create a coalition government on which the youth movement would sot. And if the Yemeni hate Ahmed because he is his father’s son; they hate the al-Ahmar and al-Islah even more. This will not be easy but it is feasible.