An Andean War? Managing Colombia's Disgruntled Neighbors

Messages of distrust between the Colombian Government and Hugo Chavez were considered no more than showboating after Hugo Chavez made headway in getting two Colombian citizens released, followed by open support for the rights of the kidnappers to be represented as a legitimate political party. Anger and frustration in Colombia which has been literally torn apart by the FARC and other rebel groups over the last 30 years put Chavez on the hit list of Colombians inside their own country and those in the Colombian Diaspora who often left their places of birth due to problems derived from the conflict in Colombia. Upon the death of Raul Reyes, one of the FARC leaders killed in a camp in Ecuador, a diplomatic scrum has begun between Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela. Ecuador is accusing Colombia of intentional violations of their territory with the recent attack. Colombia did apologize, yet made clear their claim today of support by the Ecuadorian and Venezuelan Governments for the FARC and Colombia's right to protect its own sovereign territory from terrorist attacks. The last piece of the drama comes with Hugo Chavez. By placing a number of heavily armed troops on its border to add flames to his theory that Colombia wishes to attack its neighbor and himself personally, an Andean War has perhaps taken its first steps. Currently, Ecuador and Colombia have removed their diplomats from each other's embassies and have no diplomatic communication beyond Chavez's saber rattling, or more specifically the sound of marching and the screeching of tanks surrounding the borders of Colombia on either end.

Conflict in South America has always been considered much as a Cold War between neighbors who never took actions beyond minor skirmishes. In the era of South American military governments in the 60s and 70s, many disputes over territory were the catalyst for countries like Argentina, Chile, Brazil and most everyone else purchasing some of the most advanced equipment, Exocet missiles and even in the case of Brazil, an old aircraft carrier to keep their neighbors at bay in the event of a hot conflict. Ironically, the heaviest conflict was in the early 80's between the UK and Argentina when local unrest and economic tensions lead General Galtieri of Argentina's military government to divert attention away from local issues by attacking a disputed territory known as the Maldives Islands/Falkland Islands. Galtieri's strategy of conquest did nothing more than to end his own career and reduce the last of his support in Argentina to nil and deal one of the final blows to the era of South America's military dictatorships.

In a classic sense the political fate of Chavez may come with his verbal, and now physical adoption of the dispute between Colombia and Ecuador. Along with verbal accusations of Colombia's intention to murder him and his recent mobilsation of his armed forces, Venezuela has been investing in some very advanced and high tech weapons from the Russian army since the Presidency of Chavez began. In addition to Chavez's rearming of Venezuela, his support has also started to wane with some Venezuelan groups as seen in his loss in a referendum to increase his powers under the Venezuelan constitution. Some may see Chavez as taking the strategy of General Galtieri in assuming a conflict, but the will of the Venezuelan people to give their children and blood on behalf of the FARC and Chavez is likely not as strong as Colombia's wish to turn itself back into one of the most promising countries in the region, free of terror, economic strife and threats from their borders. Support from the US may balance out Colombia's military capabilities as well, as its Air Force and Army are equipped for conflict with rebels and AK-47's and not new Venezuelan Sukhoi fighters or armored tanks.

Another territory in the world this week that seems to have similar problems as Colombia are Israel and the Palestinian Territories. Like Colombia, conflicts from outside its border are influencing the lives of its people. As well, parts of the country considered to be under the right of control of the government and people are in constant civil distress. Another similarity is that no one knows how to solve the problems, but everyone can agree that aggressive influences from outside the border will do nothing more than keep Israel, the Palestinian people and Colombians in constant conflict at the behest of a Chavez or similar malcontent in their respective regions. Colombia has always had unfortunate experiences with rebels inside its territory, but hardly anyone can doubt the impatience the Colombian Government will have with a full attack from its neighbors who are seen as supporting rebels and making the Andean region into the next Middle East.