Raul in Russia: Not what it used to be

 Raul Castro’s visit to Russia at the end of January may have turned some heads, but it did not receive the front-page treatment once demanded by news on relations between these two countries. Reports on Raul’s week-long stay generally show that Castro and Medvedev stuck to mutual concerns that included agriculture, manufacturing, science and tourism. These matters are almost certainly of greater relevance to each country than fostering the military ties that so worry the United States.

Cuba has great motivations in seeking Russia as an ally. First of all, despite its much weakened stature since the end of the Cold War, Russia still commands the power that accompanies a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council, a privilege enjoyed by only four other countries in the world (China, France, the United Kingdom and the United States). This makes it an important international player, even if its current level of development would put it on par with countries like Bosnia and Albania. 

Second, Cuba endured a difficult year of three hurricanes and a decline in prices for the island’s major export, nickel. The $20 million loan that Russia is considering providing to Havana would be welcome in this economic context.

And third, during the past year, Cuba has been seeking to diversify its sources of oil away from the ever more volatile Venezuela by expanding relations with Iran, Brazil, and Angola. Russia, of course, is a similar draw. While not one of these countries is a prospect to match the oil provided by Chavez to the island essentially for free, they are good options for Cuba to hedge its bets, should Venezuela’s policies change.

Still, warnings abound on the prospect of improved Russian-Cuban relations. Jaime Suchlicki of the University of Miami cautions:

Notwithstanding the good will of the new U.S. administration, old alliances, national interests and objectives seem to take precedence over good relations with Washington. The cold war may be over, but Russian nationalistic and expansionist ambitions may not.

U.S. leadership would do well to take this with a grain of salt (Russia’s economic concerns likely come before any “expansionist” ambitions for now) but to keep it in mind, and avoid alienating either of these countries in a new formulation of the U.S. foreign policy agenda.