New Leadership in Latin America: The Challenges of “Change”

Brazilian’s took to the polls this past weekend at the end of Lula’s Presidency in order to elect the next Lula, Mrs. Dilma Rousseff of the PT-Brazilian workers party or to adopt the right of centre, Jose Serra who is close to former President Cardoso, seen by many as the architect of Brazil’s successful economic plan. While Brazilian’s cast their ballots, Ecuador’s President Correa was recovering from the after-effects of getting tear gassed by his own police force while claiming a “coup” was taking place in his own country. While Ecuador’s protests against new laws regarding police promotions and wages was the spark that lead to many lower level police to rise up in physical debate, Ecuador’s tradition of short lived presidencies over the last 15 years and another coup would not surprise anyone who lives or has any ties with Ecuador and its government. Correa’s policies and approach has taken to removing the international financial institutions from his country despite the over $4 billion of debt and his “direct” approach towards change in Ecuador seemed to have backfired after Correa ripped his shirt in front of police and told them “If you want to kill the president, here he is. Kill him, if you want to. Kill him if you are brave enough.” Soon after he was escorted out of the building wearing a gas mask.

Ecuador’s confrontational President might not have started a coup, but surely exacerbated an energetic protest into a situation where he was assaulted and is pushing his opponents by claiming the result was a coup, when most likely it is a result of economic concerns and poor management by his Presidency. Life will continue under Correa for awhile longer, but Ecuadorans likely wish to have the problems of Brazilians. Difficulty in Brazil comes in choosing a leader in an election where the most important policies of the two main candidates differ only slightly. The two main candidates Rousseff and Serra have fought each other to a runoff election, supporting the same successful economic policy while debating issues mostly over the future identity of their country. The runoff election will take place in a month as the leading candidate Dilma Rousseff was unable to secure the Presidency despite having the majority of support from the electorate. Rousseff is the PT candidate who is supported by Lula, but had lost ground recently due to corruption accusations against her party. Despite this, she was still leading in the polls and will likely win against Serra, as the legacy of Lula and the successes of the economic policy will give her the boost she may need to keep the PT as the party of power. Dilma however is not Lula, and will likely have to tone down on issues that might hurt Brazil’s long term relations with the US and EU as most of her support beyond the PT base comes from an economic plan that is known by many to originate from Cardoso and Serra and the opposition. Another concern is that Dilma’s popularity may be only as good as the reputation of the PT and the support of Lula for the first year or two until she is able to form her own successful identity as “Dilma” and not as Lula 2.0. The eventual outcome of Brazil’s election will have a massive effect on policy and economics in the Americas, but Brazilians are blessed to have two candidates that would likely do well over the next presidential term no matter who wins. The expectation is that of a peaceful election.

New Presidents in Chile and Colombia have been met with immediate and challenging problems upon taking their seats this year. Santos was elected due to lasting security concerns in Colombia, and as a former Defence Minister for Uribe, he entered the Presidency debating Chavez and recently claimed a victory in an airstrike against the FARC number two, Jojoy while he continues to degrade the FARC leadership from within. Pinera of Chile took his oath of office during an earthquake that literally shook Concepcion apart and has become the face of national pride in helping the trapped miners escape, announcing recently that they could be out as soon as two weeks from now. Pinera was the first freely elected right of centre since the end of the Pinochet era and has the duty to move his country forward past their recent past and division amongst Chilean society. It seems that the miner’s issue allowed Pinera to pull the country together, but cracks in the story and protests by other miners who feel neglected in the process might hurt Pinera in the long run.

The results of elections, coups and political struggles will likely change greatly depending on Brazil’s election and how some country can get out of debt and progress over the next few years. Dilma’s approach to the leftists and capitalists in the region and abroad should be taken with a great deal of consideration, as while Lula may be able to attempt assertive policies at home and abroad, the popularity of Dilma is not as solid, especially since Serra is still a political threat during this runoff and during her future Presidency. October 31st will be the Runoff election between Dilma and Serra.