In a Changing Middle East, Jumblatt Recalculates

Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt appears to be repositioning his Druze bloc in the face of changing national and regional political realities.

In the past few weeks, Jumblatt expressed his support for financing of the Hariri Tribunal, was seen at recent March 14 social gatherings, questioned the value of Hizballah’s arsenal to Lebanon, and has reportedly scheduled a visit with King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia for some time in the near future.

Earlier in the year, the Druze chieftain had broken away from the Saudi- and Hariri-backed March 14 alliance. At the time, Hariri and Saudi power was on the wain in Lebanon in favor of Hizballah, Syria, and Iran. However, in the wake of the 2011 Arab uprising, the geopolitical calculus of the Middle East has changed, and Walid Jumblatt’s allegiance seemingly along with it.

Jumblatt is likely concerned with a deteriorating situation in Syria for the Assad regime, which is extremely influential in Lebanon. If Assad falls, a new Syria government would be Sunni-dominated. Such a scenario would see Syria pulling away from Iran and moving towards Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

Hizballah, facing extreme isolation in a post-Assad Syria, would obviously prefer to know where Jumblatt’s heart lies:

“The head of the PSP [Jumblatt] should step out of his grey area since he cannot support the resistance and Syria and at the same time criticize the resistance, Syria, and defend the international tribunal,” a Hezbollah parliamentary source was quoted in Lebanon’s Daily Star.

A Druze political realignment in Lebanon could mean the PSP leadership holds a dim view for Assad in Syria. If so, it makes sense that Jumblatt would be courting new (old) allies and feel comfortable holding controversial stances in relation to Hizballah.

A shift could also impact the balance of power in Parliament, which is split between March 8 and March 14.