GailForce: Korean Crisis – Why the Surprise? We Are After all Still at War.

The North Koreans have announced that sometime between Thursday April 12^th and Monday April 16^th, as part of the celebration for Kim Il Sung’s 100^th birthday and the 80^th birthday of the North Korean Army, they will launch a weather satellite, Kwangmyongsong-3, aboard a Unha-3 rocket into space.  The celebration is also expected to see the formal installation of Kim Jong-un as North Korea’s supreme leader.

The upcoming satellite launch coupled with reports from South Korean intelligence agencies that North Korea is preparing for an underground nuclear test has once again reminded the U.S.public that there is no peace treaty and we are still in a state of war with North Korea.  One news report I listened to today remarked that the U.S.military remained at a “hair trigger” alert because of the ongoing crisis.  The U.S.military is always on “hair trigger” alert because of Korea, a situation I witnessed first hand when I reported for duty to U.S. Forces Korea in the late ‘80’s.  As part of my command check in I was outfitted with full battle gear to include weapons.  That crisis environment situation has not changed.  On March 28^th while testifying before the House Armed Services Committee, General James D. Thurman the commander of U.S., UN, and Combined U.S. and Korea Command forces stated:

“I believe we are in a very uncertain period on the Korean Peninsula with the possibility of unexpected events leading to miscalculation. North Korea remains the greatest threat to stability in Northeast Asia.  Upon the death of Kim Jong-il…power transferred to his youngest son, Kim Jong-un…the leadership remains committed to continuing its ‘military first’ policy…Even in the face of enormous economic hardship, the regime maintains the fourth largest army in the world.”

To those who say that because of its economic issues, North Korea may have a large military but it’s not very effective, I disagree.  During his testimony General Thurman addressed that issue:

“Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, North Korean forces have been in relative decline compared to ROK and U.S. forces in the south…To compensate for this decline and continued improvements in alliance capabilities, North Korea is investing heavily in asymmetric capabilities such as cyber-attack, ballistic missiles, and special operations forces that actively train to infiltrate into the ROK to attack civilian and military targets.

North Korea continues to improve the capabilities of the world’s largest special operations force, which includes 60,000 soldiers trained in a variety of infiltration methods such overland, undersea, and airborne entry into the ROK.  Well trained, well resourced, and extremely loyal…these forces could cause significant disruptions to ROK governance, utilities distribution, infrastructure operations, and mobilization. North Korea’s willingness to employ these forces is well documented, with examples of their use dating as far back as the 1960s and as recently as 2011.”

As to the current crisis critics say North Korea is using the launch to test ballistic missile technology. The North Koreans say the UN Space Treaty guarantees every nation’s right to develop a program.  They even invited foreign journalists into North Korea to view the launch site.  In an April 8 article in their official news service (KCNA) they stated:

“As reported, the Korean Committee for Space Technology organized the visit as an exception, going beyond international practice, to show the peaceful nature of the satellite launch in a transparent manner…They were briefed on the mission and performance of the polar-orbiting earth observation satellite: It will gather necessary information on the distribution of forestry resources in the country, severity of natural disasters, crop estimate, weather forecast and survey of natural resources during polar orbit.

They viewed the carrier rocket Unha-3 on the launch pad.

Seeing the satellite and carrier rocket whose transparency is ensured to the maximum, they had deep understanding of the fact that the DPRK’s satellite launch is aimed at space development and use for peaceful purposes from A to Z.

…The visit to the launching station for the working satellite Kwangmyongsong-3 which will contribute to promoting the international confidence and boosting cooperation in the field of space scientific research and satellite launch offered the visitors an opportunity to realize the might of another space power advancing towards the world standards by pushing back the frontiers of latest science and technology.”

I can’t remember a time when North Korea, a notoriously secret society, invited the world press in to observe a missile launch.  Of course the North Koreans will continue to say that is proof the launch is not military related. The U.S. and its allies are not backing down.  On April 9^th, Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs George Little provided the following statement:

“Secretary Panetta and Korean Defense Minister Kim Kwan Jin spoke by phone this evening to discuss the announced North Korean missile launch.  Both leaders would regard a missile launch byNorth Koreaas a serious provocation and a violation ofNorth Korea’s international obligations and standing UN Security Council Resolutions.

“Secretary Panetta and Minister Kim reaffirmed their shared commitment to closely monitorNorth Korea’s efforts and to ensure the defense of theRepublicofKorea.”

The trajectory of the launch is not expected to fly over Japan but that nation has deployed Patriot missiles and destroyers equipped with the Aegis system.  Some analysts believe the missile the North Koreans are testing is the Taepodong-2.  On April 5^th the North Koreans stated via their news agency:

“The south Korean puppet forces recently bluffed that they would “intercept” the DPRK satellite Kwangmyongsong-3, disclosing their attempt to make a fresh military provocation.

The group of traitors aligned with the U.S. is saying that it would track the orbit of the DPRK’s satellite projectile with the mobilization of war hardware including various monitoring machines, missiles and Aegis destroyer, and intercept the satellite in case its debris fall out.

…To intercept the satellite for peaceful purposes is just an act of war and it is bound to entail tremendous catastrophe.

What matters is whether the provocateurs are concerned about the consequences.

Their call for “strike at Pyongyang” is just hysteria of the puppet war-like forces.

Nobody should dare encroach upon the sky abovePyongyang, sacred capital of the DPRK, and they are gravely mistaken if they think they can survive after attackingPyongyang.

It would mean the miserable end of the puppet group and end of everything insouth Korea.”

North Korean trash talk for sure but I believe this is that’s nations way of saying we may have a new leader but our policies will remain the same with a few modifications.  I believe bringing in foreign journalists along with giving the appearance of preparing for potentially their third underground nuclear weapon test is their attempt at “transparency”.  Because of multiple leaks over the years concerning the U.S. intelligence capability they have to know that digging up the ground in the same area where they’ve had a previous underground tests in 2006 and 2009 is basically doing it in the open.  The next few days should be interesting. As always my thoughts are my own.