Emerging on the Wrong Side of History: Who is the New Fidel?

Whatever people may think about Fidel Castro, he is likely one of the luckiest and most challenging leaders towards his opponents in the last three generations of world history. While his actions towards the surviving opposition, journalists and opposing leaders in Cuba is less than civil, and Raul Castro himself was responsible for executing much of their opposition at gunpoint, current leaders who wish to emulate Fidel and fight against Obama’s America might not be as lucky or as intelligent as Fidel Castro, and might find themselves on the wrong side of history as Western powers move towards a greater consensus and middle powers start to ally themselves with the West, China and other states which prefer to control their own destiny.

While the perspective of many Americans often is the opposite of their European colleagues, a similar 8 years of the Bush Presidency will likely not become an alternative to any policies of the Obama Administration. With respect to local US issues, especially the current health care debate, to become like Canada or Europe from a health perspective is often not desired and often not understood. Most Americans do actually have very decent health care coverage, as do most Canadians and Europeans. Administering such care often lacks in many systems from one problem to another. After living in the US, UK, Canada and Spain, I would say problems and scandals abound, but also that the debate in the US might allow other nations to debate their own systems and resolve their own issues respectively. The debate is the benefit, but locally nothing will change much in the end for the most part. The dialogue is of a certain value however as Obama and his international perspective, the move towards a right of centre government on the European continent and middle powers now being able to work with the US without being tarnished by Bush allow a consensus to be formed on how to approach trade with China, rogues states such as Iran, North Korea and to some degree Venezuela and find commonalities between Europeans, Americans and other similar countries in dealing with a globalised world where nations seem to be choosing where to camp and prosper for future security and economic strength. A good example of the fallacy of this in the UK will likely come at the political career of Mr. Brown and perhaps Mr. Blair, as the consensus seems to not look favorably on making economic deals in spite of security. Britain will most likely endure a political change in order to being itself on board and regain respect from its allies, soldiers in Afghanistan and its political class.

Fans of Castro or those who seem to believe they have as much luck and intelligence often are those leaders who have a substantial amount of oil or somehow have been able to gain weapons technology and have a population which is controlled and oppressed so that no information leaves or enters the nation. This latter example is that of North Korea, who seems to be forgotten on the world stage, at least outside of Northern Asia when they are not kidnapping Japanese or Korean neighbours or shooting surface-to-surface missiles towards Japan and Hawaii. While the North Koreans have more in common with old Soviets than old Cubans, it is likely that they will stay that way for generations as China seeks to re-integrate culturally with the world and keeps its foot on North Korea and its actions.

Iran’s popular uprising is slowly degrading Iran’s leadership and the legitimacy of the government to justify any legitimate justice in society through a government which is habitually hiding its abuses and justifying its nuclear ambitions despite any evidence of the latter. The regime will likely come to and end at the footsteps of its infamous Evin prison as its leaders seeks to murder more and more of its citizens in order to keep itself in power. Consensus on Iran will likely reach the point where Western journalists, citizens and others will be kidnapped or killed for having contact with the country and its regime, or the regime will play its last card like North Korea by claiming nuclear capabilities, but unlike North Korea who is surrounded by a weaponised China and Japan, Western powers and their political allies who have lost many in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan would likely come to brutal terms with Iran, especially since Iran’s Diaspora and locals have made a strong point to show the illegitimacy of their government and its lack of support. As well, the will of many in Iran to fight a full scale war to support a leadership who is illegitimate and likely will begin a war in order to regain legitimacy will be difficult. Weapons capabilities of Iran come with a few modern SAM batteries at best, not coming close to the defense capabilities of North Korean or even Venezuela. Iran will likely never reach the point of becoming a Cuba or North Korea, as people inside Iran have already published their new revolution and spilled blood in the 1980s and in 2009.

Venezuela is the most curious example, as support for the poor and measures against Chavez has given him more legitimacy due to strong opposition and addressing poverty issues directly, but moves towards closing down opposition media, enabling himself to be elected indefinitely and making it illegal to criticize the government. As he tours the palaces and homes of leaders who have openly killed many of their own citizens in other nations, Chavez seeks to turn Venezuela into an Iran or eventual North Korea optically, but the severe opposition and debate in Venezuela and open discussion about Chavez inside and outside of the country by many from Venezuela and others with interests in the region keep Chavez as more of an empty threat than anything else. Colombians, who are enduring yet another cold war with Venezuela often do not have issues with Venezuelans themselves, and vice versa. Despite this, Venezuela has purchase some advanced weaponry from Russia and China and is seeking closer economic ties with Iran, seen in Chavez’s recent tour of the Middle East and opening petroleum trade with Iran. The popular support of Chavez, coming from poorer rural supporters ties in well with a history of poverty and popular uprising in Latin America, but when popular support in Iran is met by unequivocal support by Chavez of Iran’s regime, it simply leads leaders and Kings of other nations to simply tell his to quiet himself, as opposed to opening a dialogue on poverty reduction and popular support for all, whether it be Iranians on the streets of Teheran or impoverished in the slums of Caracas. Ties with Iran might do so much to see Venezuela as a possible target, but no one takes Chavez serious enough it seems to come to a consensus on the issue…A problem that Fidel Castro never had with Cuba since the Missile Crisis.