Democracy in Hong Kong: A Key Asia-Pacific Issue for 2014

2014 began in Hong Kong with a New Year’s Day march for democracy that drew thousands into the streets in protest against Beijing’s efforts to limit democratic rights in the former British colony. Unless demands are met for universal suffrage and open nomination rights in Hong Kong elections, July 2014 is likely to see the city’s Central district occupied in a potentially massive act of public civil disobedience. While the future of Hong Kong democracy lies in the hands of Hong Kongers themselves, support and solidarity from the international community — including the United States — will also play a critical role.

Currently at issue are nomination and voting rights ahead of a planned executive election in 2017. At present, Hong Kong’s chief executive is elected by a 1200-member Election Committee dominated by Beijing loyalists and highly unrepresentative of the general Hong Kong public. While Beijing has agreed in theory to universal suffrage for the 2017 election, it has rejected calls for open nomination of candidates, insisting that candidates can be nominated only by a pro-Beijing nominating committee, and that no candidate Beijing considers disloyal can be nominated. Without open nomination rights, even universal suffrage would be of little value for Hong Kong residents, since their choice of candidates would be limited to the pro-Beijing camp. A five-month public consultation on voting and nomination rights was launched in December and is currently underway. After the public consultation closes in May, its results will be included in a formal proposal which must then be passed by the city’s Legislative Council and approved by Beijing.

Pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong have responded to Beijing’s efforts at limiting democratic rights by initiating the Occupy Central movement, which has pledged a massive and sustained act of public civil disobedience in the city’s Central district if demands for universal suffrage with open nomination rights are not met following the end of the public consultation process. July 1, the date of an annual pro-democracy march in Hong Kong, is also the planned date to begin Occupy Central unless demands for full democratic rights are met. Beijing has reacted predictably to Occupy Central, warning that the movement is at risk of becoming an “enemy of the state,” accusing its leaders of collaboration with “separatists” in Taiwan, and threatening “to impose tough measures to maintain Hong Kong’s stability.”

While Beijing fears losing control of Hong Kong, a victory for Hong Kong democracy would also reverberate through mainland China, giving Beijing added reason for fear. A “Hong Kong Spring,” Beijing fears, could spill over onto the mainland and become a “Chinese Spring.” Beijing’s conditioned response to such a threat is to crack down: “to impose tough measures.” Beijing wants badly to assimilate Hong Kong before Hong Kong assimilates mainland China. Beijing’s “toughness” reveals nothing so much as its weakness.

However strong a local movement for democracy Hong Kong activists including Occupy Central are able to build, support and solidarity from the international community — including the United States — will also play a critical role in their success. The greater the international attention on events in Hong Kong, and the greater the international support for pro-democracy forces in Hong Kong, the greater the pressure will be on Beijing to comply with Hong Kong’s demands for full democracy. In the event of civil disobedience by Occupy Central, the eyes of the world should be on Hong Kong, and solidarity rallies should be held outside Chinese embassies and consulates across America and around the world. The U.S. and other Western governments should also make it clear to Beijing that any attempt at a mainland-style crackdown on the democracy movement in Hong Kong would be met with severe diplomatic consequences for China. For its part, the U.S. consulate in Hong Kong has vowed to support democracy in spite of warnings from Beijing against interference in Hong Kong affairs.

Support for Hong Kong democracy, while crucial for Hong Kong residents themselves, is also a tremendous soft-power opportunity for the United States as it “pivots to Asia.” There’s no better way to win “hearts and minds” than by doing the right thing simply because it’s the right thing to do. U.S. support for democracy in Hong Kong should be loud, clear, and unequivocal. Beijing’s demands for “non-interference” in Hong Kong affairs should be ignored. In the event of civil disobedience by Occupy Central, America should voice its full support and solidarity, and should send a stern warning to Beijing against any attempt at a mainland-style crackdown in Hong Kong. Nothing could draw a clearer contrast between America and China. or paint a clearer picture of what American foreign policy should look like.

Hong Kong’s Goddess of Democracy, pictured above, was inspired by a similar statue that appeared in Beijing during the democracy movement that ended in blood on Tiananmen Square in 1989. Both bear an unmistakeable likeness to a well-known statue in New York Harbor. This is no mere coincidence. Democracy in Hong Kong will be a key Asia-Pacific issue in 2014, and offers a key positive role for the United States.