The Costs of AFCON 2013

South Africa will be hosting the African Cup of Nations, the biennial African football competition that will be changing from even to odd-numbered years in 2013. In many ways this is probably good news — South Africa has the best infrastructure in terms of stadiums and roads, it has the media facilities and the wherewithal to put on a fantastic tournament. The country hosted one of the most successful World Cups. AFCON will be a walk in the park.

At least this is true from a football fan’s perspective. But South Africa also is likely to lose hundreds of millions of rands as a result of hosting the continent’s premiere sporting event. There is a legitimate debate to be had as to whether or not hosting the World Cup was “worth it” (which of course also depends on what “worth it” means, thus the scare quotes). But it is difficult to see the upside in South Africa hosting the event in 2013. Maybe some countries with smaller economies would see positive economic impact from the tournament. But it is likely to bring little in terms of tourists to South Africa, a country that already sees impressive numbers of visitors, and given the cost of hosting the event, it is almost certain to cost South Africa a lot more than it brings in even if it does allow the country to utilize some of its stadia.

AFCON local organizing committee (LOC) chief executive Mvuzo Mbebe claims that the event will create 18 600 jobs. I would love to see the evidence for this claim and would especially like to know how many of those jobs are more than temporary work for the duration of the tournament.

[Full hypocrisy disclosure: My skepticism would not prevent me from attending the tournament, and almost certainly enjoying it immensely, if given the chance. My concerns are more pragmatic than moral even if this strikes me as a shortsighted allocation of resources.]