Convergencias 2012!

I was privileged to present last weekend at the Convergencias Conference sponsored by the Yale Mexican Students Organization (YMSO), and organized skillfully by Lissy Giacomán’12 and Ana del Toro’13. YMSO successfully rounded up government officials, scholars, and talented college students from all over to hypothesize on Mexico’s future for a weekend in New Haven. I took away the notion that Mexico needs stronger individual leadership on issues such as human rights and criminal justice, while it needs a wholly open and collaborative relationship with the United States. This relationship is essential to improve the lives of immigrants, cut off financing for the drug cartels, and even fix the Mexican healthcare system. It all went like this:

Dr. Eduardo Jaramillo, Director of International Relations for the Mexican Ministry of Health and personal adviser to Health Minister Salomon Chertorivski, began by summarizing concrete improvements in the healthcare system. These have been considerable. Mexican infant mortality per 1,000 live births is down to about 15 from 39 in 1990. Mexico’s epidemiological surveillance system works very well, as shown by its reaction to the swine flu, and 98% of the population is vaccinated against measles, up from 75% in 1990. In terms of challenges, Dr. Jaramillo spotlighted Mexico’s need to shift to a preventive system from a curative system. The health condition he cited is also quite prevalent in the U.S. – obesity. 30% of Mexico’s population is obese, and about 70% of the population above age 15 is overweight (sources: OECD and CNN Reports). In addition to other parts of the multi-faceted relationship, perhaps the US and Mexico can work in tandem on this – 34% of America is obese.

Dr. Miguel Angel González Block, Director of the Center for Health Systems Research of the National Institute of Public Health, championed the need for a binational health system for Mexican migrants in the U.S. Dr. Block noted that the 11.8 million Mexican migrants in the U.S. have 4.3 million children and 5.5 million dependents in Mexico who receive remittances, creating a healthcare block of 21.6 million people. 60% of these migrants have no documents, which makes registering for and receiving healthcare in the U.S. very complicated. The migrants return to Mexico for care in Spanish through social networks, and their dependents in Mexico spend remittance money on healthcare. A possible solution is for the U.S. and Mexico to create a binational healthcare system for migrants. Mexico spends only 6.4% of GDP on healthcare, 2^nd lowest in the OECD, and could provide funding for illegals in the U.S. who need urgent care. The U.S. could in turn establish a critical care insurance policy for those illegals who do pay taxes.

Mr. Ernesto Dieck Assad began by inspiring everyone to move to the “great state of Nuevo León,” where he is the Executive Vice President of Finance and Management at the Medical Centers of the Tec Salud Health System. Mr. Assad taught his lesson about the evolution of healthcare in Nuevo León using photos – the Tec Salud hospital system has constantly remodeled itself over the years into a state-of-the-art facility. Based on my understanding, Tec Salud prides itself on financing systems that reach out to low-income patients. Mr. Assad’s presentation put across that that the government must be a supervisor of hospitals, but must allow local administrators and physicians to take the lead in planning care.

Convergencias transited from healthcare to democratic consolidation through Javier Livas, a lawyer and local government official in San Pedro Garza García, Nuevo León. I loved Mr. Livas’ cutting sense of humor and desire to bite at political problems others may be embarrassed to discuss. Mr. Livas criticized the U.S. for collecting social security tax from illegal immigrants – according to USA Today, illegals provide up to $9 billion a year to the IRS, while naturally never receiving any benefit. At a cocktail party the night before our conference, Mr. Livas also told me he thought the U.S. was flirting with the devil for not tackling drug demand and distribution. His solution would be making the sale of marijuana legal at designated discos and bars, and also making it very expensive. Mr. Livas also went after me about construction of the border wall – hard to argue with that one.

Convergencias was very fortunate to have activist María Isabel Miranda de Wallace speaking alongside Mr. Livas. Ms. Miranda is a recognized campaigner for the rights of kidnapping victims, and won the National Prize for Human Rights for promoting this cause. For Ms. Miranda it’s personal – her son Hugo Alberto Wallace was kidnapped, and she personally tracked down a number of the gang members responsible to make up for police incompetence. Ms. Miranda criticized the Mexican state as being broken, and has her sights set on fixing the political leadership. She is currently the National Action Party (PAN) candidate for mayor of the Distrito Federal.

Dr. Luis Eduardo Zavala de Alba, visiting Professor at Yale, complemented his fellow speakers by discussing the Mexican government’s inability to build a rights-based culture in Mexican society. The federal government, justice system, and security forces are more preoccupied with protecting themselves and profiting from the narco-war than upholding the freedom and rights of the citizens. This is truly evident when one considers the comments of General Jorge Juarez, an army commander in Chihuahua State. Regarding accusations of torture and extrajudicial abduction against solders, General Juarez  told reporters to stop complaining of “one more death” and instead write about “one less criminal” (source: Reuters). The breakdown of state institutions in defending the public is also evident in the recent Apodaca prison break. 30 prisoners from the Zetas drug gang escaped with the help of their jailers.

Carlos Hurtado López of the Inter-American Development Bank and Ernesto Cervera of consultancy Group of Economists and Associates (GEA) continued with a lucid presentation on Mexico’s economy. Of particular excitement has been the activity of Infonavit, Mexico’s government-run mortgage lender. Infonavit will issue 490,000 credits in 2012 to its clients, who are workers with federal housing benefits, and this will have an economic impact of about $13.6 billion (source: Wall Street Journal). Most of these credits go to workers who make under MXN7,274 ($566) a month, which is four times the minimum wage. Also of excitement is the prospect of Mexico stealing industrial production from China, due to significant wage growth for Chinese workers. In addition, Mexico’s banks are well poised to meet Basel III requirements, and this could catalyze other sectors.

Mexico still faces challenges raising the standard of living for a broader segment of the population. Government net debt is manageable at about 40% of GDP, and GDP per capita is growing around 4%, near the rate of inflation. However, poverty has ticked up to 51.3% of headcount from 47% in 2005. With the drug wars ravaging some Northern states, it’s hard to see this changing in certain places.

Toward the end of February 25, Convergencias reached its presentation on “US-Mexico Relations: the Drug War and Immigration in the Context of the Elections,” given by Carlos Sada, Consul General of Mexico in New York, and Yours Truly. Consul Sada praised the nascent DREAM (Development, Relief and Education of Alien Minors) Act. Sponsored by Senators Orrin Hatch and Richard Durbin, the DREAM Act allows a conditional path to citizenship for illegals who entered the U.S. at 15 and under. Applicants must graduate from high school, and then pursue military service or a college degree. Mr. Sada also expressed frustration at the U.S.’s inability to establish a platform for legal immigration or guest-worker status. He singled out a Yale man – Congressman Lamar Smith, Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee. Mr. Sada also reminded us that Mexico is a large part of what we eat. Think burgers, salad, or spaghetti sauce – Mexico is the source of 71% of greenhouse tomatoes imported by the U.S.

For my part, I focused on what I term the “symbiotic” nature of the relationship. It’s a relationship that will grow on both sides, whether we want that (and we do!) or not. Here is my evidence: 80% of Mexican exports are to the U.S., though 40% of the content of such goods is American. The Hispanic population is today around 15% of the U.S., but by 2050 will be around 30%. American firms will supply Mexican firms who supply a growing customer base in America. Mexico is also the U.S.’ third-largest oil supplier, and this will grow through the recent Transboundary Hydrocarbons Agreement between the two countries. It sounds like we’ve got work to do, and we need to do it together. Viva Mexico!