Chavez vs. Uribe: FARC, the Media and Economics in Colombia

No one would like to tell Hugo Chavez "Por que no te calles!(Why don't you shut up!)" more than President Uribe of Colombia, as King Juan Carlos of Spain did a few weeks ago. Today Chavez accused the very popular Colombian President of working with the United States to form an army to attack Venezuela. This comes as Condaleeza Rice visits Colombia in support of Uribe's anti-drug war, anti-FARC war and pro-trade agenda with the US which hopes to pull Colombia out of the quagmire of poverty, conflict and kidnappings which has kept one of the most advanced countries in Latin America in conflict for more than four decades.

Hugo Chavez has had mixed blessing since his verbal embarrassment by the King of Spain. Firstly he lost in a referendum to increase his powers and give him an indefinite term of elected office as President in the Venezuelan Constitution. On a second more positive note, Chavez helped negotiate the release of Colombians Consuelo Gonzalez, a former Colombian Congresswoman and Clara Rojas from a 5 year abduction by FARC rebels. This helped form a media coup against Uribe government's failure to have hostages released in his tough campaign against the FARC. While Chavez's help was appreciated by the hostages and he is making efforts to have more of them freed and limit hostage takings in Colombia, he is also pushing Uribe to react to his criticisms of the Uribe government's incredibly popular policies in Colombia. In reality, Chavez said openly that FARC should be recognized as a real political power as they have an army and control territory, which angered many in Colombia who do not believe that the release of Gonzalez and Rojas gives Chavez the right to interfere in their local affairs beyond his humanitarian involvement.

Chavez has taken the opportunity in the last few years as Latin America's greatest oil producer to push his politics beyond Venezuela's borders. His visits to Iran and oil aid to Cuba and Bolivia did not illicit a strong physical reaction by the United States to date as the war in Iraq and petrol problems in the rest of the world has made Latin America a low priority for the Bush Administration since the rise in petrol prices 2 years ago. During this time however, countries like Colombia have been dealing with Chavez in good economic times. In a FT.com article on Latin American economies, the recent downturn due to the US housing crisis may affect non-petrol economies in Latin America with greater pressure than any other region in the world. While countries such as Chile, Mexico and Brazil can most likely weather an economic downturn with some negative temporary effects, Venezuela and Ecuador's petrol economies will likely make them stronger in the region, which means more verbal fodder from Hugo Chavez. Increased poverty in hard economic times never yields a positive result for any Latin American political leader, but for Uribe who is the man who's destiny is linked with the fight against the FARC, the backseat criticisms from Chavez in Venezuela will likely become louder in the next year. The only saving grace for Uribe is that no one really takes Chavez seriously outside of Venezuela, so unless Colombia does react through coercion against Chavez the best response may just be to take a page from the book of King Juan Carlos of Spain.