As Egyptian military leaders scramble to consolidate power ahead of a presidential election in April, it is seeking help from a former ally. After meetings last week in Moscow, it was reported that Russia will supply Egypt with $3 billion in arms and military aircraft.
From Egypt’s standpoint, the deal will help make up for reduced support from the U.S. American aid has been scaled back after Egypt’s military took over the faltering government of Mohammed Morsi last year. The visit to Russia and major arms agreement is also a way to solidify the leadership and control of Egypt’s presumptive next leader, Field Marshal Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who led negotiations with Vladimir Putin. Egypt’s relations with other Middle East powers seem strong, as Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates agreed to fund the transaction.
Russia’s motives in the deal are more difficult to determine. In the 20th century the Soviet Union was a major player in Middle East affairs and a key supporter of Egypt and its authoritarian regimes. As the current relationship between Egypt and the U.S. is seemingly devolving, is Russia and Putin looking to reclaim the Soviet influence? Or is this strictly a business arrangement?
There is support for both views. According to Vladimir Sotnikov, a Middle East expert with the official Institute of Oriental Studies in Moscow, “Moscow certainly wants to gain a new foothold in the Middle East, to fill the USSR’s former niche.” Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs, counters that it’s about the cash and nothing more. In Lukyanov’s view “Russia has no grand plan, no appetite to replace the Americans in the Middle East and not the slightest idea what to do about all the turmoil that’s blighting that region.”
While Putin might use this arms deal as proof of Russia’s relevance on the global stage, I believe that is overstating reality. Russia’s economic and political stability remain questionable, despite any military equipment it may have to trade. I don’t see it being in a position to be a major Middle East power broker.
More troubling is what this development says about Egypt. The military shows no signs of backing down. On the contrary it seems to be tightening its grip on power and squeezing out any democratic advances seen since the Arab Spring. Is this what the people of Egypt sacrificed so much for? Is this type of leadership conducive to increasing stability in the region? Close monitoring of this situation over the next months is highly advisable.
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