Yudhoyono Rides High On "More of the Same…" in Indonesia

This week, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (aka SBY) easily won a second five-year term as Indonesia’s president, running away with 62% of the vote, according to official polling data, although a precise vote count is not yet available. SBY will be the first Indonesian president to be re-elected and the second to be chosen by popular vote. Moreover, this election was generally considered fair, and that is not just a major milestone for Indonesia, but the Muslim world.

In the wake of his Democratic Party’s victories in April, Yudhoyono has been given political mandate that will afford him the political capital to persuade the legislature to undertake further economic reforms, especially considering he is limited to two terms; he will not be hampered by reelection concerns. Although, President Yudhoyono’s has not officially claimed victory, pending the official election results, he did set an agenda for his next term. His primary goals are to strengthen the rule of law, fight corruption, further economic development, and alleviate poverty. These objectives resonated as some 30 million Indonesians, 13 percent of the population, live in poverty. Policy formulation did not get much more specific, even during the televised debates between candidates.

SBY’s support is largely due to the political and economic stability Indonesia has enjoyed under his tenor, something not seen since before the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. Yudhoyono is not only seen as a economic reformer, but a political one, picking a vice president, Boediono, a former banker with no strong political ties.  This is opposite his opponents who chose retired generals with strong ties to former Suharto Regime. SBY is also a retired general, who cut his political teeth under Suharto, but he has done an excellent job branding himself.

The pummeling of his two opponents is instructive to the mood of the Indonesian public. Former president Megawati Sukarnoputri, the daughter of Indonesia’s first president, Sukarno, is only estimated to have received 20-25 percent of the vote. Despite this, within hours of the polls closing, she called the election “pseudo-democracy”. Her running mate, Prabowo Subianto, said the campaign was preparing for legal action.  Their claim of fraudulent voter lists notwithstanding, it does not appear their populous message resonated with voters.

The other challenger, Jusuf Kalla, the #2 in the current administration, came in a distant third at about 10 percent. Although he charged SBY with dawdling, it is Kalla who has been perceived by many as the major obstacle to reform. Kalla’s Golkar Party also made attempts to appeal to the growing popularity of conservative Islamic fashion sensibilities, displaying posters of their candidates’ families, with their wives wearing jilbabs, traditional Muslim headscarves. The wives even published a book together titled, “Devout Wives of Future Leaders”. This is significant because Indonesia is a nation where women traditionally are not “covered”, but there has been much recent debate over the role of Islam in Indonesian life since the reemergence of democracy. Mr. Yudhoyono’s wife is Catholic and does not wear a jilbab. At least for the time being, it appears that Indonesians favor SBY’s more secular outlook over Mr. Kalla conservative Islam. This is a continuation of the support enjoyed by secular candidates in the April parliamentary elections.

Indonesia is the most populous Muslim nation and SBY may use the clout garnered from this election to expand his regional and international profile.  Indonesia, under his helm, is certainly an example for some of the less politically stable and economically stagnant ASEAN states.  The final vote of confidences come from the business community. The recent elections and the resulting political continuity caused no stir in the Indonesian markets, as  it met investor expectations.  An auspicious sign?  Time will tell.

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