Yemen's Transition of Power

As waves of national protests continue to be staged in Yemen, the opposition is attempting to show a unified front. The different factions opposed to the President have realized that if Yemen is to survive this social and political crisis, a plan need to be put forward.

Unlike Egypt and Tunisia, Yemen cannot count on an organic popular uprising to oust its current regime. The Yemeni population is too fragmented for that; and a once social movement could turn into full blown regional conflicts, which could be then used by radical groups to further instability in the region.

Therefore, the opposition’s leaders have agreed on a plan which enounces the terms of the President’s departure before year’s end, as well as the launching of an inquiry into the deaths of peaceful protesters.

This is what Mohamed Al-Sabri, speaker of the opposition had to say on the matter: “We’ve agreed on a settlement proposal including a roadmap for the president’s departure before the end of this year./…… The five-point plan was yet to receive a response from the veteran leader.”

It is important to note that the decision made by the leading political figures of the opposition to open a dialogue with the government, came forth without a popular mandate. Many protesters are still against the idea of negotiating with the “enemy” so do speak.

Whether this plan is agreed upon or not by Ali Abdullah Saleh; the opposition would still have to draw popular support, if it is to be implemented successfully.

Transition of Power

Even though President Saleh came forward about a week ago, announcing that he will not run for another mandate, the majority of protesters have refused to wait until 2013 for him to step down. They are quite adamant that Saleh needs to leave now. Yemenis have so little trust in the government that they do not want to run the chance of being lied to once again. Only a resignation from power would prove them that indeed they have been heard.

To add to the confusion, the opposition has so far failed to expose how it proposes to handle the transition of power. Besides, given that all the key governmental and military positions are held either by Saleh family members or his strongest of supporters, a simple presidential resignation will not suffice. To truly remove him from power would mean to have a purge of the three-decades long system on which Yemen was functioning.

We will now have to wait and see if the President is willing to engage in “pour parler”.   

Protests set to continue

Despites the efforts of the opposition’s leaders to come up with a winning strategy, protesters have little faith in the power of negotiations. As far as they’re concerned, the protests will continue until their demands are satisfied. The time of bargaining is over.

With his webs of support disappearing fast, President Saleh is losing more ground with every resignation. Of late, his usual tactic of “buying” his opponents to submission has not worked according to plan; and even his Al Qaeda rhetoric has missed to create the desired effect.

However, he still remains defiant and he has vowed to “to defend his government with every drop of blood,” accusing his opponents of hijacking protests in a ploy to split the nation.