Yemen: a Country Rises

In a surprising move, which neither the government nor the international community saw coming; the province of Ibb staged a massive rally in its regional capital. Thousands upon thousands of pro-democracy protesters gathered in the town centre, voicing their anger.

With growing unrest in the south of the country, armed clashes within the Oil region of Mareb and the constant al-Houthi attacks on the government infrastructures in the north; the Saleh’s regime is more than ever caged within the walls of its capital.  Bigger portions of Yemen are now out of the reach of the Central government.  Given that Yemen is an unstable country on a good day, this situation does not bode well…..

If ever Al Qaeda had an opportunity to gain more control over the country, now would be the time. The lack of political leadership is certainly adding to a sense of insecurity and if no one steps forward, this power vacuum might lead to the rise of unsavory figures within the political landscape of this fractured nation.

Diplomats are leaving

The UK has been the first country to gauge of the dangers of a region such as Ibb to revolt against Ali Abdullah Saleh’s political rule. The British immediately ordered the repatriation of all their citizens as well as some of the Embassy non essential staffs. They are also advising against any travel within and to the country.

The US also decided to limit its presence by organizing the departure of all their nationals ‘families. Diplomats are now asked to remain within the Embassy compound to lessen the security risks.

After having witnessed firsthand how volatile the region can be and how quickly peaceful demonstrations can turn bloody, the international community is not willing to play Russian roulette!

More defections

Over the past few weeks, key political allies have deserted the President and joined the ranks of the pro-democrats. Influential leaders such as al-Ahmar from the Hashid tribe and al-Zindani a powerful cleric have now defected and are supporting openly the demonstrators.  Even members of the presidential tribe are now distancing themselves from Saleh, criticizing his decisions and members of the presidential party have resigned in great numbers.

With every day passing, more Sheikhs are also deciding to oppose a regime which is not offering them any financial incentive. Besides, many Sheikhs have had the intelligence to realize that by supporting the presidency, they would run the risk of losing their own legitimacy. And more than money, those men are attached to their titles.

In a formidable act of defiance, the President’s half brother, whose influence has been lessened lately in favor of Ahmed, the designated heir to the “throne”, has vowed to send his regiments to protect the crowds if the Security Forces or the Republican Guards attempted another crackdown.

No cohesion within the opposition

With so many political factions gathered under the umbrella of the opposition, the anti-Saleh movement is in desperate need of leadership.  So far, the movement has been mostly organic and drawing its strength from popular support; but if Yemen is to move forward a plan needs to be set in place. To add to the problem, Yemen needs a political man who would be seen as a viable unificator of North and South Yemen.

Although not as outspoken as Hussein al-Ahmar or Hamid al-Ahmar, Sheikh Mohamed Abulahoum has of late been seen as a potential candidate. This senior member of the Presidential party is highly respected amongst the tribal chiefs and his family name carries much weight amongst the Bakhil’s tribe. To add to this favorable mix, the Sheikh modern approach of politics and his forward thinking seems to find a positive echo with the US administration. He might just be the right man for the job!

Much of Yemen’s future depends on the outcome of the Libyan Revolution. I believe that Gaddafi’s stand for power and his determination to crush the dissidents, is feeding the Yemeni President’s belief that resignation is not his only option. Being the man of power that he is, and one has to admit a so far brilliant stratege, Ali Abdullah Saleh does not want to follow his fellow presidents to the court room or see his assets frozen.

Now, if a compromise could be achieved, allowing him to leave the presidency while maintaining his sense of pride, Yemen could be the first of the Arab countries to implement a peaceful transition of power, and even sets the tone for future nations.

Anyhow, if nothing is done soon, Yemen runs the risk of sinking into a Libyan type of conflicts which would create absolute chaos in an already shaken region. Even Saudi Arabia agrees that a calm Yemen is actually much more favorable to its own stability. Since the Kingdom is facing its own premises of unrest, it would not want to see Yemen’s conflicts spill over its territory.