Year in Review: Russia 2011

United States

For Russia’s Foreign Policy, 2011 started with a breakthrough signing of the START Treaty that fostered new hopes and brighter prospects for U.S. -Russia relations. Alas, the enthusiasm from the successful agreement was soon soured by less effective negotiations on the U.S. deployment of a ballistic missile shield in Europe. The lack of an agreement on the structure of BMD and the parameters of its elements, as well as the unwillingness of the parties to compromise, created a serious impasse on one of the most critical issues for the countries’ relations. Recent threats from Russia to review the START Treaty came as a reaction to the situation and threaten to bring the long-term negotiation efforts back to its starting point.

Asia-Pacific

While the world’s attention is shifting to the Pacific region, Russia’s strategy there remains unclear. Although its strong stance on the Kuril Islands dispute and active participation in APEC have demonstrated Russia’s apparent intention to strengthen its position in the region, it is still not clear how it will be pursuing this direction, and whether it will be capable of exploring it at all. An August visit by then North Korean Leader Kim Jong-il revived Russian interest in the construction of a gas pipeline that would feed into a prosperous South Korea via North Korean Territory. However, considering the unpredictability of the impeding North Korean regime, especially after the recent power shift, the possibilities for a multilateral cooperation project are still blurred.

Europe

Europe continues to play an important role in Russia’s foreign policy as the EU and Russia’s interests are intertwined in both energy sectors and near neighborhood issues (Caucasus and Moldova), although the parties do not always see eye to eye on those matters. Nevertheless, high-level meeting of the representatives from Germany, Poland and Russia in May focusing on the creation of the security policy committee between Russia and the EU has demonstrated that cooperation and dialogue on key security issues for all involved could be a great possibility.

MENA

The Russian response to the overwhelming Arab Spring remained mostly within the framework of non-interference in internal affairs of other states, and on calling the leadership of the restive countries to minimize violence and take every effort to avoid civilian casualties. Hence, the Russian decision to abstain in the vote for UNSC Libya resolution and consecutive support for an arms embargo came as a bit of surprise, especially if one compares it with Russia’s reaction towards similar political unrest in Syria.

Without a doubt, Russian reactions to the developments in Libya and Syria do not mirror each other and have led to different interpretations. Some emphasize positive signs of Russia’s ability to cooperate on important international issues, while others find this behavior unpredictable and untrustworthy. It is possible to assume that Russia’s stakes are much higher in Syria, where it cannot afford political turmoil brought by sudden regime change.

WTO Entry

Russia’s admission to the WTO was another unexpected event that marked the end of 2011. After 18 years of prolonged negotiations, Russia was able to finally sign the WTO accession protocol with ratification expected in the summer of 2012. Georgian resistance to the Russian WTO bid – the very last barrier on the Russia’s path to the organization – fell under the efforts of the Swiss mediation group, and with the support from the United States and European Union.

In conclusion, many of the issues mentioned above will still prevail on Russia’s foreign policy agenda next year. This is especially true for the proposed ballistic missile system in Europe. Despite the fact that the Kremlin has shown a few promising signs of possible cooperation with the West, such as the ban on the S-300 missile complex sale to Iran and a vote on the Libya resolution, it stands very firmly on the issues of non-interference in its internal affairs and NATO’s eastward expansion.
2012 will also show to what extent external security matters and the internal political situation will allow the Russian leadership to shift its attention to long-delayed economic issues, mainly improving economic cooperation and the investment climate in the country.