Year in Review 2009 – India

Overview

The 2008 Mumbai attacks dominated the news and cast a long shadow that affected India’s actions in 2009.  The investigations, compilation of dossiers detailing Pakistan’s involvement and prosecution of the perpetrators of the attack were the highlights of the past year. Evidence of the terrorists’ direct links with Pakistan increased tensions. The composite dialogue between the two countries came to a halt.

The attacks tested Indo-US relations, as India sought more cooperation from the new US administration burdened by a financial crisis and the Afghan/Iraq war. When the US hosted the Indian Prime Minister in November, there were perceived slights and disappointments. The Obama administration tried to comfort Indian apprehensions by promising to implement the civil nuclear agreement signed during the Bush administration. Since the Nuclear Supplier Group’s waiver in 2008, India has signed nuclear agreements with Mongolia, Russia, Canada, Kazakhstan and Namibia this year.

Towards the East, tensions with China increased around the time of the 13th Indo-China border talks in August. Both countries increased military presence along the disputed border areas, even as leaders on both sides tried to play down any differences. However, India took steps to improve trade relations with the Far-East Asian countries and concluded FTA’s with ASEAN and South Korea.

India also rejoiced at  the launch of its first nuclear submarine, and the discovery of water on the moon by its maiden lunar mission, Chandrayaan-1.

Person of the Year

Manmohan Singh became the first Indian Prime Minister since Jawaharlal Nehru, to return to power after completing a full five-year term. The United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government was reelected with a stable majority, a win widely credited to Dr. Singh.  The opposition tried to project Singh as a weak PM who took orders from Congress Party President Sonia Gandhi.  But such personal attacks, against a man known for his integrity, did not go down well with the Indian public resulting in a resounding defeat for the opposition. Singh is viewed as the architect of the current economic growth which began when he opened India’s economy as its Finance Minister in 1991. He was instrumental in passing of the Indo-US civilian nuclear agreement in his first term. With a stable majority negating the need for support from the communist parties, who had hobbled his agenda in the first term, Singh can now chart his own agenda and further cement his role in the nation’s history.

Most Unexpected Event

Poor voter turnout, particularly in Mumbai, during the 2009 General Elections was one of the most unexpected events of the year. After the horror of 26/11, Mumbai saw thousands of citizens out on road. Their ire was targeted at the elected officials and the outrage indicated that the mid-year elections would see massive voter turnout. The urban youth especially had been vociferous in their reaction and were widely expected to register their outrage during the national as well as state elections. Candidates’ efforts, media and public participation led to various voter registration and outreach activities prior to the elections. There was an applaudable use of the internet and other social networking avenues to inform voters about issues and candidates.  However, everyone was shocked when the turnout was just 44 percent, even lesser than in previous elections.  Such apathy on part of the voters brought to fore the question of accountability as in the Maharashtra state elections (Mumbai is the state’s capital) the same government, whose Chief Minister and Home Minister resigned after the attacks were reelected.

What to Watch for in 2010

Commonwealth Games: India will host one of the biggest international sports event in its history. The 19th Commonwealth Games will be held in New Delhi in 2010. A total of 71 countries are expected to participate in 17 different events. The Games a matter of pride for India and an avenue to showcase its infrastructural development and sporting capabilities.  Security at the games will be of prime concern. Terror free success of the Games would go a long way in assuring the world that India is safe for business and travel, while sending a strong message to terrorists.

President Obama’s visit: Obama has accepted Singh’s invitation to visit India in 2010. Former President Clinton had charmed Indians during his visit, while President Bush’s visit led to the finalization of the landmark nuclear deal. So far Indians are not sure how the Obama administration sees India’s role in the larger South Asia region. With Af-Pak dominating strategic calculations, India fears being considered only through the lens of its relations with Pakistan, rather than as a vibrant democracy having shared values and common strategic interests with the United States. Manmohan Singh’s US visit in November 2009 did not help in allaying these apprehensions on the Indian side. 2010 will tell us if Obama’s visit can change this perception.

Kasab sentencing and the 26/11 investigation: The trial of the lone surviving terrorist Ajmal Kasab for the Mumbai attacks will end in 2010. But the 26/11 investigations regarding David Headley and Tahawwur Rana’s role in the attacks and their association with the Pakistan based terrorist group Lashkar e-Taiba will continue well into 2010. India is expected to continue applying pressure on Pakistan to act on the evidence provided and bring to trial the masterminds behind the heinous attacks.

Universal Identification card:  Starting 2011 Indians are expected to receive a national ID card. Next year will see a vigorous debate regarding the necessity and scope of the ID in view of privacy concerns. These cards will also be a test for the country’s bureaucracy as these cards will cover over 1 billion people.