Will Post-Ahmadinejad Iran change its foreign policy?

The Islamic Republic of Iran’s eleventh presidential election will take place on June 14, 2013. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s time in office will end soon afterwards, but he will always be remembered for his outrageous comments including his denial of the Holocaust or the non-existence of homosexuals in Iran.

Ahmadinejad’s undiplomatic language and his controversial comments were seen as publicity stunts in some parts of the world. Some people loved his anti-Western rhetoric and verbal support for the Palestinian cause. The same rhetoric, however, also worked to help the agenda of Ahmadinejad’s enemy: Israel. According to Ephraim Halevy, a former director of Mossad, the Israeli intelligence service,  Ahmadinejad’s comments “united the entire world against Iran.”

Ahmadinejad has been the bogeyman of the world for the last eight years. But how much power has he actually had? Where does the presidential office stand in the Islamic Republic’s complex and undemocratic political system when it comes to setting foreign policy?

The reality is that the president’s role in setting foreign policy is minimal. Mohsen Rezaei, a former chief commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and a presidential candidate, commented that “whatever the outcome of the election, the Supreme Leader sets the foreign policy.”

Iran’s nuclear program and its relations with the United States of America are also the privy of the Supreme Leader. Mohammad Saeedi-Kia, a possible presidential candidate and former minister under three presidents, observed that “the Supreme Leader makes the final decision” about relations with the U.S. Moreover, Ali-Akbar Velayati, a possible presidential candidate and the Supreme Leader’s senior foreign policy advisor, contended that the Islamic Republic’s decision to suspend enriching uranium from 2003 to 2005, the policy to resume the enrichment process, and what has been observed since then have all been the Supreme Leader’s decisions.

The Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanei is the most powerful man in the country. He is portrayed as representative of Mahdi, the twelfth Shi’ite Imam. Imam Mahdi, according to Shiite tradition, is in occultation and will return at the end of time.

In the meantime, according to the theory of the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist (Velayat-e Faghih), the foundation of the Islamic Republic, a jurist should lead the Muslims. This interpretation has evolved to a new theory of the Absolute Authority of the Jurist. Advocates assert that the leader can overrule the Constitution and even the divine law. As representative of the Hidden Imam and “God’s vice-regent on earth,” Khamenei can do anything that he sees fit for the preservation of the Islamic Republic and does not owe an explanation to anyone.

In the last 24 years Khamenei has gradually managed to monopolize power within his close circle of aides and family including his notorious son Mojtaba Khamenei. He is a master strategist and manipulator who pits different players against one another to keep their powers checked and marginalizes those who become too strong.

As such, the reality is that Ahmadinejad has been the Islamic Republic’s poster boy for “Islamic resistance” or “anti-Western sentiment.” However, the president’s role in setting foreign policy has always been limited.

Should the West be relieved to see Ahmadinejad leave? Many observers do not think so. Khamenei and his cronies set the Islamic Republic’s foreign policy. If he has decided that the survival of the regime is in jeopardy or that the benefit of cooperating with the international community exceeds its costs, he will easily change his course. Otherwise, we are going to see the continuation of the same policies.

Khamenei has presided over three presidents. During this time he has incrementally consolidated his own power at the expense of that the president. His power is now absolute and he has monopoly over foreign policy issues. The next president is going to have his own worldview and approach, but Khamenei will set the boundaries.

Those who follow Iranian politics should be aware of a couple of points:

• As illustrated above, the president does not have much power when it comes to foreign policy issues. Therefore, do not take the president’s comments too seriously unless you need to utilize them for public relations or a strategic advantage.
• If you are looking for a deal with the Islamic Republic, do not negotiate with any Iranian officials unless they are Khamenei’s representatives and are authorized by him to speak with you on the subject matter.

Ahmadinejad has always been overrated. The good news is that he is leaving office. The bad news is that the agenda-setter, Khamenei, is to stay for as long as he lives and the Islamic Republic avoids democratization.