On the one hand, the signs aren’t so good for the ex-oligarch. A new trial begun yesterday could see the former Yukos tycoon convicted for 15 additional years if found guilty of charges that are, according to his lawyer, Robert Amsterdam, “even more fraudulent than the first set.”
So why did Medvedev allegedly fly the convict from his Siberian cell to his new show trial in Moscow aboard the presidential plane? What’s more, according to Marina Galperina in the glossy hipster magazine Russia!, “Khodorkovsky’s mother recently stated to Reuters that she’s placed all her hope in Medvedev to “save” her son”.
Perhaps Medvedev was just plane-pooling to reduce emissions, because whatever the truth surrounding that flight, Khodorkovsky’s mother has since become more pessimistic, rather than less: “The charges are completely absurd,” she said, “but I have little hope of a good outcome.”
There are however some glimmers of a change of tone from Medvedev; the opposition daily Novaya Gazeta today mentioned his packet of laws designed to help small businessmen by promoting rule of law and transparency. This may have been simply a ploy to allay the fears on behalf of a growing 47% of whom think the commercial climate will worsen in the coming month.
Whether or not that will bring meaningful change remains to be seen. As the paper itself notes, the reforms will not succeed without a wholesale change in the legal and political systems, which are saturated with corruption.
Perhaps the most salient indicator of the likely actions of a populist government, however, is public opinion, and here Medvedev will score no points by showing clemency.
It is widely known that arresting Khodorkovsky gave Putin a substantial popularity boost. This is because, while he is seen by a small class of liberals as a martyr, Khodorkovsky is widely reviled by ordinary Russians, who hate the oligarchs for looting the country in the 1990s, and believe Khodorkovsky to be guilty of at least some of the charges.
As the BBC’s Richard Galpin writes, “most ordinary Russians will not be bothered if Mikhail Khodorkovsky is locked away in a Siberian jail for many more years”.
Indeed, there is little for Medvedev to gain by releasing such an embittered political opponent: his assets have already been taken over, and the general public, themselves crippled by the financial crisis, has little sympathy for the plight of billionaire swindlers.
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