Wikileaks, Mr.Putin and the Future of the EU-Russia Relationship

One of the latest Wikileaks that might cause a serious rift between friendly nations is the assumption by officials that Russia and Mr. Putin have a stronger relationship with organised crime within Russia and abroad that realised and that this relationship is often used to promote national goals. These accusations focus mostly on the sale of weapons to factional groups around the world that would be seen as intrusive if Russia sold weapons directly to these groups. The prohibition of the sale of the S-300 missile defence system and Russia supporting the actions against Iran shows stronger ties with the West, especially considering that the Iran situation is deteriorating daily. Despite strong reservations by EU officials, it is more likely that the Russia’s ties with Europe and the US will become reluctantly stronger than turn in the other direction, even with Bear bombers flying over the north Atlantic and thousands of weapons systems being sold and licensed to China.

The end of November highlighted many of the EU and NATO’s future ties with Russia and Europe’s view that while the Eurozone might fail, EU relations with Russia may blossom. At the NATO Summit in Lisbon at the end of November, a proposal by President Medvedev to have a joint missile defence system where Russia and NATO would mutually defend each other from missiles flying over and towards their territories was proposed with future intentions in mind. This proposal by Russia falls in line with the new push by Russia to have closer security ties, and as a logical result, economic ties with their European neighbours while the US struggles with their own internal issues and falls away from their allies in Europe and globally. A visa free zone and common economic concepts link with the proposed “Common Security Concepts” proposed by Russia to France and Germany as well as sweetening the pot for Europe to have access to Russian raw materials and fuel exports.

In addition to discussions of a deeper security relationship between Russia and non-Anglo European NATO, Vladimir Putin himself made overtures to creating a EU-Russia Union. This idea might not be so suspect as the EU moves towards expanding it ties with China, India, Brazil as well as working on an FTA with Canada and increasing their activities with current partners in the EU’s economic agreements such as with Mexico. Having a strong economic union with Russia and the other BRICs makes sense, but is Europe in its current state ready to tie itself to Russia? EU members like Slovakia might protest as there are statements from their centre-right government that sees the Eurozone in great risk of breaking apart, at least on the issue of a common currency. Their protest to the Greek and Irish bailouts and the accession of Estonia in 2011 when the EU is facing more defaults in Portugal and Spain does not set the stage for an EU-Russia Union at the moment. The argument made by Mr. Putin is that Russian natural resources and the capabilities of the EU manufacturing base could reenergise both economies, but as Chancellor Merkel pointed out, there have been conflicting actions by Russia recently and in the recent past, and that she would have to “pour some cold water” on the idea, at least for now. It is more likely that economic ties will grow naturally, but that actions that drive the EU and Russia together such as their common enemies might be the catalyst for future former ties between the two neighbours. It could be that a common view on security goals needs to be mended so that national pride does not come in the way of economic progress. For that, Russia has to become more European, or Europeans might have to become more comfortable with Russia and the way things are done in Russia and Russia’s neighbours in Eastern Europe.