By now we all undoubtedly know that the new START requires the U.S. and Russia to limit their strategically deployed nuclear warheads to 1550 each. Though one wonders…
Why 1550?
A CNN article from last week begins to answer the question. The article notes that if the number of strategic nukes falls below a certain number, the U.S. will have to reevaluate its strategic triad policy. The U.S.’s strategic triad allows it to launch nukes from either land, sea, or air.
As for land:
There are currently 450 ICBM missiles located on three bases. If the number of missiles drops too low, it may no longer be cost effective to maintain all three locations. But closing them means a political fight. Congressional members representing areas around the bases would do everything in their power to prevent closure.
As for sea:
The submarine leg is the most difficult to cut. There are currently 14 submarines split between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. At any given time, only two submarines in each ocean are in a position to fire nuclear weapons. The others are either in port, under maintenance or traveling to or from deployment. Many observers think at least 10 submarines are necessary to retain the nuclear capability at a viable, practical level.
As for air:
Bombers would be the easiest to adjust and possibly even eliminate from the triad. The bombers’ nuclear payload could be replaced with conventional weapons. However, while they are tempting to cut, the bombers are the one leg of the triad that is predictable. They are visible and, unlike missiles launched from a silo or submarine, a bomber can be turned around.
So why 1550? Most experts suggest that the triad can still operate if we’re at a level of around 1000. Why not drop down to 1000? Or for that matter, why not 1540? Why not… 1549?
The article makes the case that Russia also wants to keep levels high for symbolic reasons. But what’s the symbolic difference between 1550 and 1000? Could Russia’s nukes still have symbolic significance if levels were at 800? 500?
Why 1550?
Reports circulated in 2002 when the U.S. and Russia signed SORT that SORT’s levels (1700-2200) were dreamed up by the Pentagon and essentially dictated to Russia. I wonder if that’s essentially what happened here. Even so, how does 1700-2200 turn into 1550 over 8 years?
I expect many tough questions to emerge over the new START’s ratification. However, frustratingly enough, I don’t expect that this question to be one of them.
