Were events in Egypt echoed in Nazarbayev’s decision to call for a snap presidential vote on April 3? Perhaps

On Friday, February 4th Kazakhstan’s president Nazarbayev announced that his country will hold presidential elections on April 3, 2011, almost two years earlier than previously scheduled for 2012. Nursultan Nazarbayev has held a grip on power in this Central Asian republic since before the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.  At the age of 70 he is rumored to be in a frail health and without a groomed successor. Nazarbayev has tried to project a democratic image abroad and reach out to the West amid criticisms of corruption and authoritarian tendencies. In 2010, Kazakhstan chaired the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the first former Soviet state to hold this position. Although ironically Kazakhstan has never held an election deemed free and fair by the OSCE, Europe’s main security, human rights and election monitoring body.

In light of the protests that swept through Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, Jordan and Bahrain, some analysts have suggested that the early elections proposed by Nazarbayev are just a smokescreen aimed at quelling criticism and appeasing Europe and the United States as well as a strategy to fend off anti-government demonstrations at home.

Let’s backtrack and look at the timeline of events related to the proposed snap vote in Kazakhstan:
Last year, 55% of Kazakhstan’s registered voters or 5.1 million people – out of the total population of 16 million in the country – signed a petition in favor of a referendum that would extend Nazarbayev’s term as president until 2020 without elections, if passed. On January 14 of this year, the Kazakh Parliament unanimously voted to support the referendum by introducing changes to Kazakhs constitution that would allow for the extension of Nazarbayev’s term. The E.U. criticized the proposal and the U.S. called the referendum a “setback for democracy.”

Following parliament’s actions, Kazakhstan’s Constitutional Council rejected the proposal as illegal and unconstitutional on January 31. Although Nazarbayev had the right to veto the Council’s decision according to Kazakh law he refused to do so. The Kazakh president described his decision as a “historic democratic lesson of obeying the constitution” and that “guided by the country’s highest interests, I decided not to hold the referendum.” As a compromise, Nazarbaev proposed early presidential elections rejecting a proposed referendum that would extend his term to 2020. Both houses of parliament unanimously signed the legislation calling for presidential elections on April 3, 2011. The OSCE and the U.S. have welcomed the move.

In his annual address to parliament on February 4, 2011 Nazarbayev said: “I have received a signal from the people – don’t leave office, continue working. If my health allows me, if I have the people’s support, I will work as long as I am allowed to” – perhaps indicating that he’s intent on staying?

By announcing that presidential elections will be held in April, almost two years ahead of the scheduled elections in 2012, Nazarbayev doesn’t leave much chance for the opposition to catch its breath. Some believe that this will also quiet behind the scene struggles for succession. It is almost certain that Nazarbayev will win again, extending his time in office beyond 2012 (he can run an unlimited number of times). Instead of uncertainty in 2012 he opted for early elections now while playing it off as choosing democracy by rejecting the referendum. It will allow him to buy more time, groom a successor and perhaps come up with a “what’s next” plan, all while keeping his pseudo-democratic credentials.