Venezuela Results- Recount or Political Theatre?

The results of the April 14 presidential election in Venezuela were polemic but not surprising. The real test comes in the days ahead and the degree to which the opposition demands a recount.

Despite mental preparation for an electoral battle, the news of defeat was still met with despair by Venezuelans supporting opposition candidate Henrique Capriles on April 14. In what felt all-too similar to the election on Oct. 7, multiple exit polls showed Capriles with a comfortable lead until late in the afternoon.

But what really mattered was what came next.

Unlike the Oct. 7 election, in which Capriles made a quick speech recognizing defeat, the Capriles of April 14 urged justice and called for a recount of all votes nationwide.

The candidate said he would not enter into an agreement (accepting the pronouncement of the National Electoral Commission – CNE) based on lies or corruption.

He then launched a figurative bomb at the pronounced winner, Nicolas Maduro: “The great loser is you, and what you represent… Mr. Maduro. If you were illegitimate before, today you are further weighed down by illegitimacy.”<El gran derrotado es usted y lo que usted representa (…) Señor Maduro. Si antes era ilegítimo, usted hoy está más cargado de ilegitimidad.>

And thus the political battle began.

According to Maria Teresa Romero, a professor at Universidad Central Venezuela in Caracas, this was the type of speech supporters were left craving after the last election. “Capriles supporters have appreciated the transparency and force of this campaign.” In short, the electoral loss was in fact, a political victory for the opposition coalition (Spanish Acronym MUD).

Initially, Maduro agreed to a vote recount, saying he had nothing to fear. But the following day, he reversed that statement and was sworn in as president in a rushed, late-afternoon ceremony. His swearing in speech, among other things, accused Capriles of inciting violence, insinuating the opposition was attempting a coup d’etat. In the same speech Maduro denounced the United States for causing power outages throughout the country.

In two separate press conferences, Capriles called for peaceful dissidence. He asked citizens to go to the local outposts of the National Electoral Commission (Spanish acronym CNE) and demand a vote recount. He warned his followers not to give in to “provocations,” and to remain “prudent,” above all, avoiding violence. Any aggression, he said, should be taken out on pots and pans.

And so, for over an hour after sundown on April 15, Venezuelan cities shook to the sounds of a cacerolazo, a favorite Latin American form of peaceful protest, clanging pots pans and any other unfortunate kitchen utensils one may find in their path.

The question now is, how long will this peaceful protest last? How long will the public’s attention be focused on what, approximately 50 percent of the population believes to have been, electoral fraud.

Cynics will say, this is political theatre at its best. The opposition knows fully well that this exhausting back and forth will result in nothing. The CNE will stand firm on its pronouncements and not allow for a re-count.

The upcoming week will consist of marches and denouncements. They will likely result in nothing concrete. Venezuela will have six more years of Chavismo, just without the leader who started it all.

Political theatre and a week of protests, however, may not be a bad thing. Approximately half of Venezuela is counting on Capriles to defend the vote and continue insisting on a re-count. To give up this early on would mean a total loss in faith of the opposition parties.

Yet, Capriles is no fool, and certainly not a dictatorial one. What start off as peaceful events this week may end in violence. At the first inclination that his followers are in danger, the political theatre will end, and Capriles will call off vote re-count insistence.

What remains to be seen, is if the political theatre of April 2013 has re-affirmed the population’s belief in the electoral system, or left it further disillusioned.