Uzbekistan: Tiger by the tail?

Well, as many Central Asia watchers are aware, Uzbekistan's elections were supposed to take place this last December.  Therefore, they are over six months overdue.  Some vague announcements of elections this December instead were made.  But, as recently noted, no election preparation seems to be forthcoming. 

At last, perhaps a glimmer of electioneering?  Or just a sop to the anxious or enraged?

 Today, RFE/RL reports that Uzbekistan will raise pensions for its aged population by a lofty 25%.  That minimum will bring pensions to USD 24 per month.  Doing the math: USD 24 x 12 months comes to USD 288 per year, instead of USD 19.20 per month, or 230.40 annually.

The same article notes that minimum wage will be USD 12 per month, and that other social service payments will rise by 25%.  Furthermore, wages were increased last November, a month before the non-existent election. 

Pension comparisons
The official poverty line, as defined by economic indicators, is USD 1 per day per person, or USD 365 annually.   But in the context of Central Asia, this may look very favorable.  Further investigation suggests that many of Central Asia's aged and infirm are living well below this poverty line. 

Minimum pensions in Turkmenistan are USD 12 per month, although World War II veterans get USD 40 per month.  In early 2006, Tajikistan raised its minimum monthly wage to USD 6 per month, and capped pensions as about USD 55 per month.

According to a letter of intent and Memorandum of Economic Policies sent to the International Money Fund on October 2006, Kyrygzstan's pension payments were in arrears until last year, when they were made current.  Kyrgyzstan also scheduled a 10% increase in payments.  Kazakhstan has had the most increase in social service payments–much higher than their neighbor states.

Back to Uzbekistan
It would seem then, that these half-steps toward improving social services might have some effect.  Recent visits of IMF and ADB officials in Uzbekistan might well have aimed toward achieving these changes while avoiding inflationary currency manufacture to cover them–Because if inflation goes up, then the wage increases will only add to resentment.   Nevertheless, that is pure speculation: there was no indication of what was discussed at these meetings. 

It also looks as if the lack of elections is explained not just by the power of elites who are enjoying the status quo, but the prospect of an inability to control events if the lid of control shifts even a little.  In another article, printed this week, scholars assessed Uzbekistan at high risk of violence when President Karimov abdicates/ leaves/ steps down. 

The voters may be like a sleeping tiger held by the tail, awakened by the pinching grasp of its tormentor.   The raise in pensions might be able to let the tiger lie–just a little bit longer.

Photos: Yale, Cardozo; Himalayan Foundation