US Defense Secretary visits Egypt. Will he discuss defense?

US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates arrived in Egypt today in the first stop on a week-long tour of Egypt and Saudi Arabia. I suspect that Gates will make some unannounced stops in the region (to Iraq, perhaps), but I can’t verify that.

Gates set out three goals for his meetings in Egypt: (1) encourage stronger diplomatic ties with Iraq, (2) offer assurances that Washinton’s policy shift to engage Iran will not come at the expense of the region’s security, and (3) discuss progress and joint US-Egypt efforts on interdicting weapons smuggling into Gaza. These three topics are primarily political, even the Gaza border, which ultimately comes down to a political solution that solves the “demand” side of the problem. Gates will no doubt assure Mubarak that the Obama Administration will stand firm on its determination for a two-state solution, and if necessary, exert poliitcal pressure on PM Netanyahu to make it happen. Regarding Iraq, Secretary Gates brought the same message to Cairo when he last visited in April 2007. President Mubarak responded with some increased bilateral activity, including minister visits. [Of course, Egypt is always happy to host multinational conferences in Sharm el Sheikh. It’s an easy play.] I expect that President Mubarak may provide assurances that he will support efforts in Iraq, and perhaps express some surprise that Maliki is still around. Iran will be a more difficult conversation. The Government of Egypt is seriously concerned over Iran’s growing influence in the region, and would like to see the United States continue its negative pressure. Tensions boiled over in recent weeks as Egypt prosecuted an alleged Hezballah cell in Egypt and blamed Iran for meddling.

What’s conspicuously absent from this visit by the US Secretary of Defense, however, is conversation about defense. Threats have largely cooled in Congress to reduce $100 million of Egpt’s $1.3 billion in annual military aid. That’s good news for the bilateral relationship. But there are still major differences between the American and Egyptian militaries over how Egypt spends that money, over the weapons that the US provides to the Gulf countries but denies to Egypt, and over the diverging missions of the militaries themselves. As American forces gird up for unconventional warfare, Egypt remains decidedly conventional. But Egypt has some serious defense threats to contend with, including bandits kidnapping tourists in its southern borders and pirates hijacking ships bound for the Suez Canal.

For a truly useful trip that goes beyond the banalities of strengthening the relationship, Secretary Gates, President Mubarak, and Defense Minister Tantawi may want to have a real discussion about defense.