Update: Sino – Burmese Border Crisis

In an update to Friday’s post on the Myanmar-Chinese border conflict, it appears the Burmese military has successfully routed the Kokang Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) in Kokang, a predominately ethnic Chinese militia in the Kokang region of the Shan State.  This attack by central government forces was a violation of the 20 year old ceasefire.  Officially, the government is living up to the commitment it made to halt drug trafficking.  The junta also claims Kokang has a rebel arms factory.   There is no consensus on the extent of the drug trade in the region, but most believe the the military action is part of a larger plan to liquidate the largest remaining rebel forces ahead of next years “election”.

The government has officially declared the fighting over, and has stated that 31 government troops and 11 Kokang militants were killed.

Approximately 30,000 – 50,000 people have fled into China due to the conflict, many are believed a mix of ethnic Chinese, who had long ago emigrated to Myanmar, and Chinese nationals who are primarily entrepreneurs who have entered the country over the last 10 years.   About half the estimated 1500 Kokang militiamen are also believed to have retreated to China after handing over their weapons to Chinese authorities at the border.  They are being held separate from the civilian refugees, likely to facilitate future extradition.  The leader of the Kokang group, Peng Jiasheng, has fled to United Wa State Army (UWSA) controlled area.  A 2,000 man contingent from the UWSA came to the aid of the Kokang rebels due to a mutual defense treaty between the two groups, but the Wa retreated last Friday.  The weak response of the Wa forces invites more questions as to what is going on behind the scenes.

In June, the Burmese military inflicted a crippling blow on  a Karen Christian faction in the south of the country, which resulted in more refugees fleeing into Thailand, which already has over 300,000 refugees.  The government was aided by a Karen Buddhist militia.  The central government used a similar  “divide and conquer” tactic in the latest attacks, using a splinter group,  of the MNDAA, led by Bai Souqian, to help them take control of the regional hub, the city of Laogai.  This could foreshadow future Burmese military movements.

Some believe that the Burmese junta is modeling its strategy on the Sri Lankan governments recent successful route of the Tamil Tiger separatist in May of this year, but due to the secrecy of the regime, this is only speculation.  As a result of government actions, most ethnic militias that are not aligned with the government are on alert.  It should be noted that the Kokang were the weakest militia militarily, so the junta’s blitzkrieg may not be so easily repeated in the future.   This may also bring the Chinese government directly into the conflict as China has historically been close to the Wa due to the three decade old links between them and the Red Guard.  The Guard initially went to Myanmar to promote Maoism.

The Chinese have already made their displeasure known, the Foreign Minister has warned:

“‘properly handle domestic problems and maintain stability in the China-Myanmar border region.'”

China is Myanmar’s largest investor and trade partner.  Although China is providing humanitarian assistance, the government is also reinforcing its border with troops to stop the hemorrhaging.   Further, China has offered to mediate the conflict in Kokang.  There appears to be no response by the Burmese junta in regard to China’s offer, but  the Myanmar Foreign minister has “apologized” for the instability its actions have caused on the border. When is the last time anyone has heard the junta officially apologize for anything?  This gives one an idea of how much clout China has with the regime and why some speculate they may favor a counterbalance to China’s influence.

As mentioned previously, the The Myanmar junta wants to integrate into the national military as border police guard units, but many ethnic militias have resisted this, seeking to hold on to their de facto autonomy.  It is likely that a regrouped combined MNDAA, UWSA, and another group led by Peng’s son-in-law, Mong La-based National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) will attempt to dislodge government forces from Kokong in the next few weeks.  There are already reports of hit-and-run raids by the MNDAA in and around Laogai.  For the Wa, supporting the MNDAA in their efforts may be a preemptive strike, as they are likely next on the government’s hit list.

The junta also went out of its way to explain its activities to ethnic Kachin leaders in the region, sending Col. Thet Pone from Northern Military Command Military Affairs Security (MAS) to meet with them.  He re reiterated the government line of drug dealing and arms manufacturing, and claimed his government soldiers were fired on first.