The drug trade embodies a ruthless logic. In a world where governments have limited resources, and the financial incentives for trafficking are great (90% of a cocaine shipment can be “lost” and the endeavor is still profitable), slaying the industry can seem impossible. If demand remains strong, successful governmental action— arrests, seizures and eradication—pushes the street price up, incentivizing new players. Supply and demand works with merciless efficiency when it comes to illegal drugs.
The drug trade also has a distinct “ballooning effect.” Efface it here and it pops up there. This was evident in the Andes in the 1990s, as coca eradication policies in Bolivia and Peru resulted in the retrenchment of the industry in Colombia, even after the fall of the Cali cartel. Now a form of ballooning is gripping North America.
Since instituting a “surge” against drug cartels, President Calderon’s plans are working, only to relocate the cartel’s operations to the Bahamas or US. A series of Department of Justice studies have concluded that Mexican operations now present the “greatest organized crime threat” in the US and American gangs are co-opting Mexican cartels to traffic cocaine and marijuana. Equally worrying, on May 6th, The Los Angeles Times reported the leader of the Sinaloa cartel, “El Chapo,” has given members of his syndicate permission to use deadly force in the US in order to protect its operations, which are more precious with every success Mexican law enforcement enjoys.
Gang violence has also spiked in Canada. This is “directly related” to crackdowns in Mexico, according to Pat Fogarty, a senior member of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, interviewed in this week’s Economist. A spate of recent arrests in Mexico has disrupted the cocaine distribution chain to Vancouver, forcing street dealers to secure their supplies. “The price goes up and the guns come out,” states Fogarty.
A long-term solution will have to engage the supply-side of the equation. In February an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal concluded, “Latin American governments have followed US advice in trying to stop the flow of drugs from the point of origin. That policy has had little effect.” Massive amounts of US aid have been doled out to Colombia, Afghanistan and more recently Mexico. As a result, the world’s supply of drugs has scantly diminished while the violence associated with the drug trade is trending up in the US and Canada.
A few months ago, I wrote about the early stages of the conflict in Ukraine through the lens of Sun Tzu’s The Art of War. While it appears likely that the war will carry on into the foreseeable future, enough time has passed for us to make an honest assessment of each side’s relative […]
The Ukrainian Army has made dramatic strides in the last few weeks. Ukraine’s tactical commanders have outfoxed their Russian counterparts, and by issuing a feint towards the south the UA has been able to earn substantial gains in the north of their country. The impact of these efforts have been compounded by the steady stream […]
In mid-May the Irish political party, Sinn Féin, won the plurality of seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly. Many American readers might not fully understand the significance of Sinn Féin’s political victory- but rest assured that subjects of the United Kingdom and a wide range of political movements the world over have heard the message […]
The first wave of the Russian offensive in Ukraine has fallen short of Russian autocrat Vladmir Putin’s ambitions. Most analysts deduced that Putin had hoped to achieve a decapitation strike of the Ukrainian government- taking Kiev and replacing Ukrainian President Vladimir Zolinski with a pro-Kremlin voice. Kiev has been threatened repeatedly through the course of […]
On the weekend of March 26th, the notorious MS-13 gang went on a massive killing spree in El Salvador which left more than 70 people dead by Sunday. Even for a country where powerful gangs hold massive sway, this recent tragedy stands out considering that it was the bloodiest day on record since the civil […]
