Unexpectedly Close – Venezuela’s Presidential Election

A Surge in Energy – and Poll Points – for the Capriles’ Campaign.

When the presidential campaign of opposition candidate Henrique Capriles began two weeks ago there were legitimate doubts about stamina, both his and that of his staff. They must be tired. One factor, however, may sway the vote when Capriles faces Acting President Nicolas Maduro on April 14 grassroots campaigning, especially in areas hard hit by crime.

In a community center in San Bernardino, Caracas, residents fill up a neighborhood meeting hall, overflowing into a courtyard in the warm, Caracas night air.

These people are not tired. On the contrary, they are fired up. Their cause? Rampant crime.

San Bernardino is considered a middle class neighborhood. Caracas’ middle class has arguably suffered the most from rising insecurity city-wide. People in this income bracket do not have enough resources to hire private security, but they do have enough money to be robbed or express kidnapped. Assailants often trail neighborhood residents into their homes and wipe them clean. Those that resist are often killed.

This community is part of Libertador, the largest municipality in Caracas. Libertador includes the western half of the city. It is in areas like this that opposition groups are trying to make a dent in Maduro’s lead.

Carlos Beccio, the second in command of the Voluntad Popular party, one of the largest in Capriles’ opposition coalition, asks the San Bernardino crowd: “How did we feel after the last election?”

“In mourning!” cry out several attendees. The number of volunteers and participants in areas like San Bernardino have grown for this campaign, compared to the last one just seven months ago. More than simply voting, many want to ensure that the process is carried out fairly, in all districts, particularly ones lower on the socio-economic totem pole.

“Last time,” says resident Rebeca Perez of the Oct. 7 election, “opposition witnesses in voting centers were intimidated out of the premises before voting had even finished.”

Each voting center is entitled to have six witnesses. Three from either side of the aisle. “This time, that’s not going to happen. We are going to ask voters to stay, supporting the witnesses so that the military and electoral commission workers don’t scare them away before the final counts are made.”

The National Electoral Commission (Spanish acronym CNE) is accused by many residents here of being in the pocket of the government. “The (Capriles) campaign is at an enormous disadvantage,” says local resident Glenda Cornejo, “but I’m still going to vote with the hope that Capriles wins.”

INSIDE THE COMMANDO

Inside the opposition campaign center, known about town as the “commando,” attitudes have changed dramatically as well. This is, in no small part to a sudden surge in Capriles’ poll numbers.

According to a poll taken by Argentine consulting firm Datamática, candidates are now neck and neck with 39.7% of respondents favoring Capriles, 34.9% favoring Maduro.

When the Capriles Campaign began on April 1, many campaign workers, disillusioned with the results of the Oct. 7 election, were simply going through the motions. “That has changed over the last few weeks,” says Julio Cesar Cedeno, logistical coordinator for the campaign. “Here, everything moves fast and people who weren’t sure a week ago are sure now… we are going at this with all we’ve got, and we are going to win.”

Aside from poll numbers, there are other signs that the tide is turning. “This week, we’ve seen an influx of former Chavez supporters coming and asking us for Capriles t-shirts,” exclaims Cedeno, “It’s great, we keep running out!”

According to Maria Teresa Romero, a professor at Universidad Central Venezuela in Caracas, Maduro’s main problem, is that he simply is not Chavez. “Not only has he not connected with the people, he has done nothing with his 100 days in office to prove himself capable of governing.”

“On the other hand,” continues Romero, “the Capriles campaign had time to learn from the mistakes made before the Oct. 7 election. Capriles’ leadership has grown; he’s no longer naïve; he is willing to be confrontational with the CNE and ask the tough questions necessary to make sure the electoral process is fair.”

Despite the recent surge of energy, for some, the memories of the October 7 election are too fresh to hope for a different outcome. “For me, Capriles was and is the winner,” gushes Caracas taxi driver Fernando Salazar, “but those people (the Maduro campaign) have all the money, all the tricks. It’s very ugly.”