The U.S. is preparing both carrots and sticks for Iran heading into the P5+1 talks with Iran today in Baghdad. There is an art and a science to good negotiating and it’s clear that Team Obama is making a conscious effort to to define the parameters of this unfolding narrative. Take, for example, this report in The New York Times that cites (if you can call it that) anonymous administration sources to suggest to the reader that the Iranians are perfectly reasonable negotiating partners and thanks to their earnest desire to resolve the nuclear crisis the threat of war is now diminishing. The reader is also left with the unsettling notion that unlike the reasonable Iranians our Israeli allies are being quite obstinate in defining a nuclear Iran as an existential threat. Interesting psychological gambit there. Iranian suspicions of Israel are certainly something skilled negotiators would use to their advantage. I wonder what the U.S. and our allies will offer Iran? A reduction in sanctions perhaps? They are being coy on that point, but still, the spin has been spun: the Iranians are ready to make concessions and the crisis is winding down. Which is all well and good, of course, unless you are listening to what the Iranians are actually saying.
If Team Obama has subtlety provided a face-saving way for Iran to make concessions then it’s also clear that this particular round of diplomacy is being backed up by the not so subtle threat of force. The U.S. ambassador to Israel recently re-stated the official American position that all options remain on the table. This as the U.S. prepositions F-22 Raptors and naval forces near Iran, the Senate imposes further sanctions, the House approves funding for Israeli missile defenses, and the G8 begins to prepare world oil markets for some unwelcome price shocks. And the Israelis? Well, they’re not talking. I’m certain the Iranians have not missed the point.
Will Iran make concessions on enrichment? Will U.N. inspectors be granted access to the sites they would like very much to inspect? Will the West make reciprocal concessions to Iran? We should have the answers those questions and more in the next few days. Stay tuned.
Image Credit: The BBC
