Will the doom and gloom never stop? Nope, says the London-based think tank Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR) in their top ten predictions for the coming year. CEBR foresees another euro crisis in the spring of 2011stemming from Spain and Italy having to refinance their bonds. If the euro does not break up at this point, says CEBR, it will fail later due to most of the euro countries’ inability to take the “tough medicine” necessary to regain competitiveness. Alas, CEBR gives the euro a dismal one in five chance of surviving the decade in its present form.
The close connection between the euro and the entire European project was again noted at the highest levels, this time by Sarkozy in his New Year’s speech. “The end of the euro would mean the end of Europe. I will oppose this backlash with all my strength”, said Sarkozy. Thus the French president joined EU Council President Herman Van Rompuy’s stressing of the enormous political implications of a euro failure – Van Rompuy warning that the eurozone crisis constituted a “surivial crisis” for the EU.
Estonia, in an event that a few years ago would seem much the merrier, became the 17th member of the euro zone on January 1 – and the first former Soviet republic to join the common currency. The modest size of the Estonian economy (a country of 1.3 million people) will have little impact on the bigger economic picture. Nevertheless, it is interesting to observe the continued lure of the euro on “peripheral” economies viewing club membership as the road to economic growth – in spite of the euro’s dire straits. Of course, for Estonia euro membership is related to more than economic development. It is also a way to distance itself from Russia and prove that its future lies firmly with the West.
Need it be mentioned that Estonia cut state spending savagely in order to qualify for membership, and that the country now faces an unemployment rate of 16 percent…. One can only imagine what will be said on the streets of Tallinn, when the Estonians are asked to chip-in to the bailouts of wealthier countries.
A few months ago, I wrote about the early stages of the conflict in Ukraine through the lens of Sun Tzu’s The Art of War. While it appears likely that the war will carry on into the foreseeable future, enough time has passed for us to make an honest assessment of each side’s relative […]
The Ukrainian Army has made dramatic strides in the last few weeks. Ukraine’s tactical commanders have outfoxed their Russian counterparts, and by issuing a feint towards the south the UA has been able to earn substantial gains in the north of their country. The impact of these efforts have been compounded by the steady stream […]
In mid-May the Irish political party, Sinn Féin, won the plurality of seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly. Many American readers might not fully understand the significance of Sinn Féin’s political victory- but rest assured that subjects of the United Kingdom and a wide range of political movements the world over have heard the message […]
The first wave of the Russian offensive in Ukraine has fallen short of Russian autocrat Vladmir Putin’s ambitions. Most analysts deduced that Putin had hoped to achieve a decapitation strike of the Ukrainian government- taking Kiev and replacing Ukrainian President Vladimir Zolinski with a pro-Kremlin voice. Kiev has been threatened repeatedly through the course of […]
On the weekend of March 26th, the notorious MS-13 gang went on a massive killing spree in El Salvador which left more than 70 people dead by Sunday. Even for a country where powerful gangs hold massive sway, this recent tragedy stands out considering that it was the bloodiest day on record since the civil […]
