A further reversal of the integration and cultural exchanges between Russia, Central Europe and Western Europe that took place after 1989 came about this week when the United States announced it would station added military forces in countries near the Russian border. Russia predictably responded by announcing they would add extra forces on their western borders as well due to further perceived acts of aggression by its adversaries. With the slow but certain re-installation of forces and the creation of an added deterrence to conflict between Russia and NATO, the repeat of the Cold War seems more likely after this recent addition of military hardware in the region.
Moves by Russia to finally sell the S-300 missile system to Iran after years of withholding the advanced system came about at the end of the last round of nuclear negotiations with the P5+1 and Iran. Russia has little incentive to aid Iran, a fellow oil and gas producer that will compete with it on the global market. The sale of the S-300 has come with tensions rising in Europe and in Ukraine and the re-establishment of Russia as a world military power. For this reason, Russia’s deal with Iran is worth its weight in popular support within Russia.
Europe and the United States have taken steps to place sanctions on Russia. While Europe depends on Russian oil and gas, sanctions and the threat of armed conflict on Russia’s border will do little to improve Russia’s economy.
Diverse options coming from Central Europe and NATO countries on how to handle a future aggressive Russia has made responses to the conflict in Eastern Ukraine all but effective. Sanctions will affect Russia’s economy, but with local popular support for Putin’s actions and a well-oiled information campaign promoting Russian interests in support of Putin, a de-escalation to the conflict may not come anytime soon.
Any decisive action by NATO will be met with an information blitz showing how historical threats to Russia have returned. For Russia, the perceived threats to the country appear to be closer than ever. Anticipation of how Russian leaders will react to those “threats” means its neighbors will justifiably be on constant alert.
A few months ago, I wrote about the early stages of the conflict in Ukraine through the lens of Sun Tzu’s The Art of War. While it appears likely that the war will carry on into the foreseeable future, enough time has passed for us to make an honest assessment of each side’s relative […]
The Ukrainian Army has made dramatic strides in the last few weeks. Ukraine’s tactical commanders have outfoxed their Russian counterparts, and by issuing a feint towards the south the UA has been able to earn substantial gains in the north of their country. The impact of these efforts have been compounded by the steady stream […]
In mid-May the Irish political party, Sinn Féin, won the plurality of seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly. Many American readers might not fully understand the significance of Sinn Féin’s political victory- but rest assured that subjects of the United Kingdom and a wide range of political movements the world over have heard the message […]
The first wave of the Russian offensive in Ukraine has fallen short of Russian autocrat Vladmir Putin’s ambitions. Most analysts deduced that Putin had hoped to achieve a decapitation strike of the Ukrainian government- taking Kiev and replacing Ukrainian President Vladimir Zolinski with a pro-Kremlin voice. Kiev has been threatened repeatedly through the course of […]
On the weekend of March 26th, the notorious MS-13 gang went on a massive killing spree in El Salvador which left more than 70 people dead by Sunday. Even for a country where powerful gangs hold massive sway, this recent tragedy stands out considering that it was the bloodiest day on record since the civil […]
