The Philippines: War and Peace

The Arroyo Administration continues its two-prong approach to the Philippines’ decade old para-military terrorist problem.  The Filipino government has tried to renew peace talks with the Islamic separatist group, Moro Islamic Liberation Front  (MILF).  Although talks had been  intermittent since 2001,  an agreement was reached last years, only to be found unconstitutional by the Filipino Courts.  The result was the Arroyo Administration scrapping the plan and MILF’s negotiators demanding the agreement be implemented before resuming discussion.  Eventually, the armistice broke down and fighting continued, although MILF attributes this to splinter groups not under their control.  In an attempt to continue talks, this year,  President Arroyo called an unilateral ceasefire on the island of Mindanao.  In recent weeks, MILF has softened its stance, agreeing to return to negotiations in Malaysia.

MILF is just one of many separatist and anti-government groups, for which there is no umbrella organization.  While negotiating for peace with MILF, on August 12,  the  Filipino government began a major offensive against another Islamic group,  Abu Sayyaf (Bearers of the Sword), on the the island of Basilan, southeast of Mindanao.

The result was somewhat of a Pyrrhic victory, despite the 400 marines, army and police commandos involved in the pre-dawn strike, due to fierce resistance by Abu Sayyaf and close quarters fighting that limited the governments advantage in artillery, 23 Filipino soldiers were killed and another 19 wounded.  Abu Sayyaf lost approximately 31 fighters.  The strike was strategic and symbolic,  targeting a major Abu training camp on the island where the group Abu Sayyaf was founded.

Abu Sayyaf began as a 1990’s splinter group of the much older MILF.  It has a reputation for being more radical and violent than its progenitor.   Its membership is small,  estimated at no more than a few hundred.  Although the military believes Abu Sayyaf has been weakened in recent years,  they have also gained more material support from the regional terror network, Jemaah Islamiyah, centered in Indonesia.  The goal of Abu Sayyaf is to form independent Islamic state in the Southern Philippines.

Not surprisingly, the military is accusing MILF of aiding Abu Sayyaf during the fighting.  It is known that the peace initiative with MILF is not popular with the “military brass”.  MILF admits that up to 10 of its soldiers were killed, but denies they were working with Abu Sayyaf; to the contrary,  it claims their people were attacked by the government, in violation of the cease fire.

The military plans to continue its operation on the island, as it believes it can win a decisive victory against Abu Sayyaf.  It is likely the Filipino military will have more success fighting Abu Sayyaf in the bush than negotiating with MILF.  Due to Abu Sayyaf’s history of violence against civilians, they are thought to have limited support from the local civilian population.  If the Filipino army can cut their supply line they may be able to score a real victory.  The underlying issues will remain though,  unless the governement does more to improve the standard of living of the Muslim population of these islands.  Until then, there will be plenty more angry young men ready to join new offshoots in order to fight for a nation of their own.  These men need a stake in Filipino society, this is something no administration has been able to provide.