The Philippines: Living la vida loca de la BOMBA

A recent series of  mysterious bombings in the Philippines have led some to wonder if it is just a more severe case of  the usual-suspects, Muslims separatist groups based in Mindanao, or a possible conspiracy led by the Filipino army, the Arroyo opposition, or the Macapagal-Arroyo government itself.

The Philippines has seen more than 60 bomb attacks and attempts this year, with some of the larger one occurring in Jolo, Iligan City, Kauswagan, Cotabato City and Datu Piang.  In addition, bomb plots have been uncovered in Metro Manila and Quezon City.  Just in the last week, twelve people have been reported killed and 100 more wounded.  Most of the targets appear to be government offices.

Bombings are not a new issue for the country:

Since December 2000 and including last week’s attacks, 671 Filipinos have been killed in terrorism-related bombings, including 116 victims in a 2004 bomb attack against a passenger ferry orchestrated by the Abu Sayyaf, according to official statistics.

But usually, the culprit is clear.  Since no group has claimed responsibility for the latest incidents, speculation has run wild.  The The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) blames Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), one of two major Islamic separatist groups (the other being Abu Sayyaf) who have fought the government, under various incarnations since the 1960’s.    The military cites bomb fragment evidence, and thinks that these are “test runs” for more extensive future bombing campaigns.  Further, the AFP links these suspected MILF activities to the Indonesian based terrorist group, Jemaah Islamiyah, whom MILF is believed to derive training and support.  However, National Security Adviser Norberto Gonzales disagrees with the military’s assessment, and the Executive Director of the Filipino Anti-Terrorism Council, Ricardo Blancaflor,  has blamed Abu Sayyaf.  For its part, MILF has denied any responsibility.  Some analyst fear that the government’s finger pointing toward MILF will endanger peace talks with the organization over the interminable conflict in Mindanao.

Conspiracy theorist believe that President Arroyo will use this crisis as an excuse to declare martial law in order to extend her six year term.  This group includes former President Joseph Estrada and  Former House speaker Jose de Venecia.  de Venecia, a former ally of Arroyo,  has publicly accused her of carrying out a national campaign of destabilization.  Further, he claims that this type of covert operation had been discussed previously by Arroyo administration officials in private meetings he was privy to.   Some have also pointed to the fact that Arroyo’s congressional supporters have already been trying to amend the constitution to allow her to extend her term in office.  Arroyo supporters have pushed back, claiming that her political opposition could be behind the bombings.

Although, these beliefs might not be completely justified, they are not wholly without warrant.  Pernicious theatrics are not unknown to Filipino politics.  Former dictator Ferdinand Marcos carried out similar bombings and even a feigned assassination ploy to justify martial law and the continuation of his term.

Another contending theory holds that Arroyo or the military might have staged the bombings to avoid possible cuts in anti-terrorism aid by the new Obama Administration.  Due to the recession, the United States has been under financial strain.   The White House has also downplayed the “Global War on Terror” and focused more specifically on Iraq and Afghanistan.  Aid cuts could undermine the Filipino’s governments position in Mindanao.  This will likely be very high on the agenda when Arroyo meets with Obama at the White House on July 30th, the first Southeast Asian leader to do so.

The United States has been watching the situation; early in the month,  C.I.A. Chief, Leon Panetta paid a special one-day visit to the Philippines where he met with Arroyo and her top security officials. After the meeting, Filipino National Security Adviser Norberto Gonzales stated:

“He [Panetta] was given an overview and we assured him that this [the bombings] is nothing…”

Even  Pope Benedict XVI has chimed in on this series of “nothings” that keeps occurring in the  predominately Roman Catholic nation.

It is possible that all the conspiracy theories are wrong;  this could just be another chapter in the melodrama, that is Filipino politics.  It is also possible that the government and various terror organizations are doing bombings for divergent reasons, which might be a  prelude to future political paralysis and social breakdown, something that is also not unknown to the Philippines.