An optimistic narrative seems to have taken over the commentary and reporting on Zimbabwe. The Wall Street Journal, for example, trumpets how Robert Mugabe, Morgan Tsvangirai, and the other participants in the ongoing talks are close to a power-sharing agreement. Some of the hardened cynics writing at The Mail & Guardian have even dared to believe that a deal might be close.
I remain wary. Every time good news leaks out from the negotiations we learn that all that we really know is that more negotiations are scheduled. And while the extensions may well be good news — the sides are still talking, negotiating, and we can hope, hammering out a deal — they also reveal that Mugabe is not exactly sprinting to reach the finish line, even if Tsvangirai's continuing participation must qualify as an indication that he believed that Mugabe is there in good faith.
But as welcome as ongoing negotiations may be, the latest reports are not good. The talks are faltering. Robert Mugabe, who spoke ominously yesterday of the opposition not being “used by enemies,” today admitted that the talks are “not exactly” going well. And if Mugabe does not think they are going well, he may well decide to go his own way. Like it or not, lacking moral authority though he might, Mugabe sits in the driver's seat. It is possible that he has gone through this exercise merely to put forth an image of good faith in order ultimately to withdraw from the talks and restore his own power as the default. One assumes that if he does so, a crackdown on the opposition is sure to follow.
Even if Mugabe has operated earnestly and in good faith, it is easy to think of him doing so because he is aware both of his mortality and of his seriously damaged reputation. One way to restore the latter at the end of his life might be to engage in negotiations that would cede power even as he knows he is prepared to fade from the stage. But Mugabe is nothing if not stubborn. And rather than cede power under conditions other than those he deems appropriate, he’d rather hold on to power. This is, of course, speculation. But it is about the most charitable speculation I can provide in trying to understand Mugabe's ways.
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