Perhaps I was wrong a few days ago in expressing pessimism, indeed, cynicism, about both the prospects for peace in the Democratic Republic of Congo and what Rwanda's incursion into the troubled eastern part of that country meant. Late Thursday a joint Congolese-Rwandan force captured Congolese Tutsi rebel leader Laurent Nkunda, one of the main figures fomenting regional instability. This has led myriad observers to believe that Nkunda's arrest signals better days ahead. The New York Times‘ Jeffrey Gettleman asserts that Nkunda's arrest means that things have shifted overnight. An editorial in The Boston Globe calls Nkunda's arrest “a relief,” a Washington Post story asserts that it “marks a key shift.” Even more optimistically, a report from the South African Press Association posits that the arrest might “bring peace,” while Barron YoungSmith believes that this news signals that an end of the troubles could be in sight in that tortured region.
So, if I was so wrong, why do I not feel especially chastened or embarrassed. Or even, frankly, all that wrong? The current reports strike me as making the current crisis too dependent on the power and influence of a charismatic, and admittedly powerful and influential, leader like Laurent Nkunda. Perhaps cutting off the head will kill the body. But perhaps the apt metaphor is a starfish, which, as we all know, can regenerate severed limbs. It strikes me as dangerous, even simplistic, to spin a narrative whereby Nkunda was the rebellion and the rebellion was Nkunda. Something tells me, and I hope I am wrong, that this narrative in which Nkunda was the primary source of the region's difficulties, and thus his arrest is the beginning of its redemption, is too facile by half.
A few months ago, I wrote about the early stages of the conflict in Ukraine through the lens of Sun Tzu’s The Art of War. While it appears likely that the war will carry on into the foreseeable future, enough time has passed for us to make an honest assessment of each side’s relative […]
The Ukrainian Army has made dramatic strides in the last few weeks. Ukraine’s tactical commanders have outfoxed their Russian counterparts, and by issuing a feint towards the south the UA has been able to earn substantial gains in the north of their country. The impact of these efforts have been compounded by the steady stream […]
In mid-May the Irish political party, Sinn Féin, won the plurality of seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly. Many American readers might not fully understand the significance of Sinn Féin’s political victory- but rest assured that subjects of the United Kingdom and a wide range of political movements the world over have heard the message […]
The first wave of the Russian offensive in Ukraine has fallen short of Russian autocrat Vladmir Putin’s ambitions. Most analysts deduced that Putin had hoped to achieve a decapitation strike of the Ukrainian government- taking Kiev and replacing Ukrainian President Vladimir Zolinski with a pro-Kremlin voice. Kiev has been threatened repeatedly through the course of […]
On the weekend of March 26th, the notorious MS-13 gang went on a massive killing spree in El Salvador which left more than 70 people dead by Sunday. Even for a country where powerful gangs hold massive sway, this recent tragedy stands out considering that it was the bloodiest day on record since the civil […]
