Reporting for the Middle East Political and Economic Institute, Foreign Policy Association blogger Manuela Paraipan shares a recent interview on post Hosni Mubarak Egypt, with Dr. Amr Hamzawy, Senior Associate at Carnegie Middle East Center. Please visit the MEPEI website to access the interview in audio/pdf format and to check out other interviews by Manuela Paraipan.
By Manuela Paraipan, Middle East Political and Economic Institute
Manuela Paraipan: How do you see Egypt post – Hosni Mubarak?
Amr Hamzawy: It is uncertain whether Hosni Mubarak will decide to leave politics by 2011, the end of his current presidential term, or run for a sixth term in office. Looking ahead, it appears that Egypt’s ruling establishment is debating different strategies to manage these upcoming presidential elections.
MP: Would the military branch accept a civilian as President?
AH: The country’s military and security institutions support the extension of President Mubarak’s term in office. The young guard, comprised of business elites and mid-career professionals recently assimilated into the ruling establishment, has been promoting Mubarak’s son, Gamal, as heir to the regime in 2011. However, the prospect of Gamal’s succession has yet to be accepted by the military and security institutions, which remain skeptical of a civilian in the presidential palace. Moreover, this scenario is hindered by Gamal Mubarak’s low popular approval rates, as he is widely perceived as being removed from the day-to-day concerns of the Egyptian people.
All eyes are on this issue of presidential succession, including those of Egypt’s opposition. Regrettably, the opposition’s current obsession with the scenario is perpetuating the status quo in power relations and harming political debates.
These parties and movements have demonstrated a near-to-complete inability to prioritize issues essential to their political future and have instead squandered efforts on preventing Gamal Mubarak’s succession at all costs. While they have been consumed by this one question, the Egyptian regime has been carefully creating an environment which will sustain its autocratic rule. The opposition’s political obtuseness in contrast to the ruling elite’s clear, strategic direction suggest that Egypt post-Hosni Mubarak will be relatively unchanged from the current political scene.
This interview can be found at the MEPEI website in its original text here
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