The Beginning of the End of the Global Economic Slowdown: A Possible End to the European Union?

Anyone watching the end of the year documentaries on stations like the BBC and other international broadcasters likely feel the sense of slight growth in the United States mixed with slowing growth in places like South America and other regions that have thus far resisted the 2008 economic collapse effectively. With the main focus of investors and economists being trained on Europe, the first discussions on a European Union that may no longer exist in its current form has become a topic of debate across the continent. Britain, being wholly independent in spirit from its continental neighbours and being independent from the Euro, seems to be positioning itself apart from France and Germany with slight hints of pulling away from Europe. Recent strife between the governing Tories and LibDems seems to be focusing around Britain’s relationship with Europe, creating a serious debate inside the UK about the carrots and sticks in continuing its status within the EU.

Despite impressive growth in Asia and Latin America, places that were thought to be eternally booming after surviving the negative effects of 2008, have had some negative economic news at the end of 2011. As logically expected, the unease in Europe has been having an effect on countries like Brazil, Canada and others. While Brazil is still expecting future growth, it had to reduce its forecast in recent weeks, as did many economies not residing in the EU. Some recent growth numbers in the United States will likely change the flows of investment as BRICS, the US and EU interchange economic losses and gains, making investors nervous and numb to sporadic economic news within the EU and abroad.

The major issue it seems at the end of 2011 is the status of Southern Europe, and whether or not larger countries like Italy and Spain will avoid economic collapse. Another issue that should be seriously considered however is whether or not a bureaucratic response to the economic crisis can avoid turning the EU into an institution lead only by unelected political appointments. While the crisis may require more immediate decision making by technocrats like Mr. Monti, the underlying sense of an unelected Brussels dominating the lives of Britons, Danes and other Europeans has always been felt by the average European citizen and is the main criticism of European institutions since the creation of the EU.

A few generations ago the collapse of Austria-Hungary in the midst of individual national ambitions and internal conflict pulled apart the Empire. The pressures on the Austro-Hungarian Empire from its various discontent members broke apart its ruling government towards the closing months of the First World War. The mistrust the Empire had of the governing leadership in Vienna at the time ended the Habsburg’s Empire while its soldiers were still fighting on its borders. While more countries wish to become part of the EU as opposed to wanting to leave it as was the issue in Austria-Hungary, sentiments in the UK and external and internal pressures on the Euro might result in a change or accommodation that will change the face of the European Union. While the end of this second modern multinational union will not break apart, cracks need to be address quickly and in a flexible fashion. This week Estonia joined the Euro and added to the large number of small nations that will have a voice opposing or supporting France and Germany while they try to deal with Europe’s economic troubles. It seems that Central Europe will not be the ones this time to oppose this modern Union, but pressure on citizens in some older member nations and economic pressure from nations abroad might shake the foundations of Europe’s institutional pillars in 2012. We wait to see if these pillars are flexible enough to stand the change that will likely come to the EU.