In an extensive interview with the Mail & Guardian ANC secretary general Gwede Mantashe last week effectively told COSATU to back off, to stop trying to run the party's and the country's internal affairs, and effectively debunked the idea that Jacob Zuma might be more receptive to giving COSATU and the SACP greater power within the tripartite alliance. Assuming that Mantashe spoke with Zuma's blessing and articulated the ANC president's will, this is huge news that might cause splintering of the tripartite alliance (which I have long predicted). But even if Mantashe spoke of his own volition and did not represent Zuma's will, his words still are portentous for COSATU's goals of greater power within the ANC coalition. The ANC-COSATU-SACP alliance has long been asymmetrical, and once the imbalance outweighs the putative access to power, COSATU and the SACP will forge their own alliance and go their own way. The divide will not happen in 2008 and may not happen as the result of the 2009 elections, but it will take place. And when it does, the effect on South African politics will be monumental.
A few months ago, I wrote about the early stages of the conflict in Ukraine through the lens of Sun Tzu’s The Art of War. While it appears likely that the war will carry on into the foreseeable future, enough time has passed for us to make an honest assessment of each side’s relative […]
The Ukrainian Army has made dramatic strides in the last few weeks. Ukraine’s tactical commanders have outfoxed their Russian counterparts, and by issuing a feint towards the south the UA has been able to earn substantial gains in the north of their country. The impact of these efforts have been compounded by the steady stream […]
In mid-May the Irish political party, Sinn Féin, won the plurality of seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly. Many American readers might not fully understand the significance of Sinn Féin’s political victory- but rest assured that subjects of the United Kingdom and a wide range of political movements the world over have heard the message […]
The first wave of the Russian offensive in Ukraine has fallen short of Russian autocrat Vladmir Putin’s ambitions. Most analysts deduced that Putin had hoped to achieve a decapitation strike of the Ukrainian government- taking Kiev and replacing Ukrainian President Vladimir Zolinski with a pro-Kremlin voice. Kiev has been threatened repeatedly through the course of […]
On the weekend of March 26th, the notorious MS-13 gang went on a massive killing spree in El Salvador which left more than 70 people dead by Sunday. Even for a country where powerful gangs hold massive sway, this recent tragedy stands out considering that it was the bloodiest day on record since the civil […]
