Understanding the Afar Saga

Last week as I was scanning the paper, I came across the tragic news coming out of Ethiopia, a country I deeply indebted to. In the Afar region, gunmen have killed five foreign tourists for unknown reasons. The Ethiopian government’s quick and inaccurate placement of blame is cause for concern.

It is, of course, bad news for Afar’s fledgling tourist industry, though it is not the first time that armed groups in the region have targeted foreigners. As in previous cases, the Ethiopian government immediately blamed the attack on militant groups from Eritrea, despite an absence of clear or convincing supporting evidence. It appears Addis Ababa is using Eritrea to build its case against global terrorism, and in so doing, is disregarding the genuine grievances of its people. As the old saying goes, “The complete lack of evidence is the surest sign that the conspiracy is working.”

In a press release, the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front (ARDUF), a rebel group fighting for greater autonomy for their region, claimed responsibility for the attack. ARDUF said 16 Ethiopian soldiers were killed, about a dozen others were wounded, and an unspecified number were taken captive. ARDUF also said the German nationals and Ethiopian soldiers, who they said were in safe hands, would be released once peaceful mediation is conducted by Afar elders. ARDUF categorically denied Eritrean government involvement. The press release proves Ethiopia’s accusation of Eritrea is baseless.

After the 1998 Ethiopia-Eritrea border war, ARDUF sided with Ethiopia and declared a cease-fire in operations against their national forces. In 2002, one faction of the ARDUF took reconciliation with Addis Ababa one step further by offering to permanently abandon armed struggle in exchange for peaceful involvement in Ethiopian politics. However, in March 2011, the armed ARDUF faction claimed to have killed 49 government soldiers in the area. Recent reports indicate that ARDUF still dominates life in the desert region.

Following the attack, the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry was busy formulating strategies to provoke Asmara. The Ministry noted that, “the government cannot and should not sit idly by while the regime in Asmara continues to sponsor acts of terror within Ethiopia’s territory with impunity.” However this statement overlooks two important facts: first, Prime Minister Zenawi has consistently employed a “blame game” of foreign actors in order to avert attention from mounting internal problems; and second, he wants to send a clear message to the international community that he is their one and only partner in the global fight against terrorism.

Continuing along his stated political line, Zenawi has proved he’s unstoppable by cracking down on the media, opposition groups, and human right groups inside and outside the country, charging them with unfounded heinous crimes. This however, has only sparked increased opposition to his regime and invites concern over his genuine intentions as an international partner.

Whatever the roots and ideological aims of ARDUF’s attack, the priority should be clear: the killings must be stopped, hostages must be released, and the Afar problem needs to be addressed in a broad and comprehensive manner. Such initiatives must take into account human security, economic and political development, and participation in decision-making in Addis Ababa. It is equally clear that these manifestations against those in power derive from a clear root cause – a persistent trajectory of underdevelopment and mis-governance in the region of the country.