Thailand’s Muslim Insurgency: Now What?

A few weeks ago, I wrote about the interesting developments in Thailand’s “deep south,” the site of a long standing Muslim insurgency seeking independence from the government in Bangkok. Soon to be Prime Miniser Yingluck Shinawatra had been stumping in the region in mid-June in an attempt to capture some crucial electoral votes for the Pheu Thai party in the July elections. What was remarkable was that in the province of Yala – a Muslim majority region and the southernmost province in Thailand which has traditionally been a Democrat Party stronghold – Yingluck was warmly received by the adoring crowds. Wearing a red hijab and espousing greater autonomy for the region, Yingluck seemed like a seasoned professional in the great game of politics as women came out in large numbers to greet Thaksin Shinawatra’s younger sister, serenading her with chants of “yamilah,” or “beautiful girl.”

The reception ran in stark contrast to the south’s relations with Thaksin himself. Thaksin preferred to crackdown on Muslim dissidents and his penchant for abandoning dialogue and consultation with leaders of the Muslim community in favor of more draconian approaches to curtail the insurgency did not endear himself to leaders of the Pattani United Liberation Organization (PULO), one of more notable Islamic separatist organizations in the area.

Southern Thailand’s insurgency has been a rather underreported phenomenon in the mainstream media though. One reason may be because the United States does not engage in active military operations there. Military aid is provided by Washington to Thailand’s armed forces, but the situation is easily overshadowed by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and even the U.S. military presence in the Philippines seems to get more play in the international press. Perhaps foreign policy analysts will soon take more notice because, as argued by Patrick Winn at Global Post, Thailand’s Islamic insurgency now threatens to be Asia’s biggest and bloodiest:

Troops already occupy the streets in force. Skinny conscripts with assault rifles patrol through the fog. German Shepherds sniff for bombs in the brush.

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This is the hour of paranoia. Come mornings, gunmen slip through curtains of jungle foliage lining the roadside. They kill cops. Army officers. Teachers traveling to class. Kids sometimes. To stoke maximum horror, they decapitate Buddhist monks with machetes.

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As oblivious backpackers party up the coast, an Islamic rebellion roars on with no end in sight…In lieu of familiar screeds against Jews, Christians and the “Great Satan” America, these mujahideen call for the heads of Thai Buddhists.

Roots of the conflict can be traced back centuries. The current Thai province of Pattani was at one point an Islamic sultanate and the cultural, ethnic, and religious values which the territory shared with their Malay “brothers” served as a casus belli for Muslims when the Buddhist oriented Kingdom of Siam emerged after the defeat and eviction of Burmese troops from the area at the end of the 18th century. Pattani’s annexation by Thailand is referred to as the “Siamese occupation” in the south, according to Winn. Additionally, other commentators have noted that the socioeconomic conditions for Muslims living in southern Thailand, compared to Buddhists in the same area, are significantly worse with respect to access to education, employment levels, and quality of living.

In 2002, Thaksin disrupted a relatively successful ceasefire between the Muslim insurgents and the Thai government when he ordered police in the south to issue curfews and declared martial law in an effort to break the insurgency once and for all. That decision triggered a series of terrorist acts by the PULO including attacking police barracks, coordinated bomb-attacks in tourist areas, and the targeting of Buddhist monks collecting alms. Thaksin subsequently directed police and military personnel to crackdown even further. New York based Human Rights Watch cited both sides for egregious human rights abuses.

During the elections of 2005, Thaksin received the largest percentage of the popular vote in the country’s democratic history when his now defunct Thai Rak Thai party captured 375 out of a possible 500 seats in the House of Representatives. But the southern provinces were the only ones in which the Thai Rak Thai actually lost seats in 2005, whilst gaining everywhere else. That is a trend which did not buck during the elections last month, despite the veneration which Yingluck received while campaigning there.

Concessions are now being made by the Premier-to-be, however, in an attempt to mollify the situation. While campaigingn in the deep south, Yingluck articulated her desire to turn the three southern provinces of Yala, Pattani, and Narathiwat into “special administration zones,” similar to the status enjoyed by Thailand’s capital city of Bangkok. Moreover, just last week Thaksin apologized for his violent policies in the south in an interview given with the Thai PBS television network. While Thai media outlets are quick to doubt the sincerity of the ex-Prime Minister’s overtures, Thaksin’s remarks may go some way into appeasing the hostility directed at his administration from various PULO elements.

Separatist leaders have previously called for nothing less than independence. But they are also pragmatic, as judged by their past attempts at extending the proverbial olive branch to the government in the form of negotiations with Bangkok. Scoring cheap political points by waxing poetic on peace discussions is something that is not new within Thailand’s political establishment either, so it is important for any serious attempts to resolve the situation to move beyond fancy rhetoric and into meaningful dialogue.