Yesterday, Defense Secretary Robert Gates pressed Iraq to reconsider the terms of the United States’ troop presence. Urging Iraq to host U.S. troops beyond the end of the year to provide security, stability and a counterbalance to Iran, the defense chief echoed the concerns of top military brass who aren’t convinced the nascent democracy is ready to stand on its own.
As per the current Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) between Baghdad and Washington, the U.S. must withdraw nearly all of its troops by the end of this year. The U.S. military would like to keep about 10,000 troops in Iraq, a number which President Obama is expected to approve.
There are whispers in Baghdad that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki would support an extension for U.S. troops, but he won his reelection with the backing of Moqtada al-Sadr’s supporters. A Sadr bloc spokesman said the group will continue to view the American presence as an occupation and would hold a peaceful protest on Thursday. If they were to defect from Maliki’s coalition, the fragile Iraqi government could collapse into political chaos.
That Mr. Gates’ speech came before the the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) should not be overlooked. His hawkish audience had most likely read AEI scholar Frederick Kagan’s paper, released Tuesday, that presaged many of Gates’ talking points. Mr. Kagan has expressed concerns that Iraq won’t be able to defend itself against Iran and its proxies without a U.S. troop presence.
“The Iraqi Security Forces will not be able to defend Iraq’s sovereignty, independence from Iran, and internal stability without American assistance, including some ground forces, for a number of years,” Mr. Kagan wrote.
As the architects of the Iraq war remain holed up in this last bastion of neo-conservatism, AEI’s continued influence and Gates’ congruence to their guidance may come as a surprise to many, in an era of hope and change. Something for Americans to considerwhile their country remains entangled in wars Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, while taking on humanitarian assistance to Japan and Haiti over the past 18 months…
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