As I reported on March 29 and March 30, Russia and Turkmenistan seemed to be headed for a new level of mutually-beneficial relations. They had signed a series of treaties and left only one to be signed, on gas, for a date in the near future, after they had worked out some kinks. Then on April 9, the pipeline connecting the two countries exploded, with each side blaming the other. The explosion has ceased all imports of Turkmen gas into Russia.
As with any event in Central Eurasian politics, it is very hard to know what actually happened. Anything said or written within or without the country is mostly supposition. Which isn’t to say my job here is pointless, but I can only do so much. So far, the most plausible explanation of the explosion comes via Radio Liberty, which argues that Russia did it. Ever since they agreed to pay European prices to their Central Asian suppliers at the height of the resource price boom, they have been losing a lot of money. Now that Ukraine, the primary recipient of Turkmen gas, has sharply decreased its imports, as the demand for energy there drops due to the crisis, Russia no longer wants, or is no longer able to, pay high prices for gas it does not need right now. In the coming days, I hope the picture becomes clearer as to who did this and why.
A few months ago, I wrote about the early stages of the conflict in Ukraine through the lens of Sun Tzu’s The Art of War. While it appears likely that the war will carry on into the foreseeable future, enough time has passed for us to make an honest assessment of each side’s relative […]
The Ukrainian Army has made dramatic strides in the last few weeks. Ukraine’s tactical commanders have outfoxed their Russian counterparts, and by issuing a feint towards the south the UA has been able to earn substantial gains in the north of their country. The impact of these efforts have been compounded by the steady stream […]
In mid-May the Irish political party, Sinn Féin, won the plurality of seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly. Many American readers might not fully understand the significance of Sinn Féin’s political victory- but rest assured that subjects of the United Kingdom and a wide range of political movements the world over have heard the message […]
The first wave of the Russian offensive in Ukraine has fallen short of Russian autocrat Vladmir Putin’s ambitions. Most analysts deduced that Putin had hoped to achieve a decapitation strike of the Ukrainian government- taking Kiev and replacing Ukrainian President Vladimir Zolinski with a pro-Kremlin voice. Kiev has been threatened repeatedly through the course of […]
On the weekend of March 26th, the notorious MS-13 gang went on a massive killing spree in El Salvador which left more than 70 people dead by Sunday. Even for a country where powerful gangs hold massive sway, this recent tragedy stands out considering that it was the bloodiest day on record since the civil […]
