The Strategic forecasting and consulting firm Stratfor, based in Houston, Texas, released an interesting analysis today comparing Russia and Turkey in their capacities as rising powers (You might not be able to read it in case you’re not a subscriber).
Stratfor breaks down the possible areas of conflict and cooperation between the two nations. The biggest potential issue for conflict: Energy. Turkey is highly dependent on Russian oil and gas and is worried of a potential cut in supplies (like Ukraine’s earlier this year). Ankara therefore is looking to Central Asia (and therefore Georgia and Azerbaijan for geographical support) to be a surer source of energy. Russia meanwhile sees Central Asia as absolutely essential to its success. Georgia is another source of tension between the two countries, as Turkey is part of NATO and supported aid shipments to the Caucasus during the August 2008 Russian military offensive there.
Despite these potential areas of discord, Turkey and Russia have a lot in common (MidEast Peace, relations with Europe, and a potential meeting of the minds on Armenia) and for the meantime are not butting heads. Both are clearly rising powers, for different reasons, and Stratfor is quite intelligent to recognize them both while discussing their strategic relationships. In the meantime, Moscow and Ankara will likely stay out of the way of the other, keeping up a quiet trade of goods and oil while asserting their power in their respective areas of influence.
Image credit: Wikimedia Commons.
