The murder of Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov acted as a sobering reminder of Vladimir Putin’s ironclad grip on power. (FPA blogger writes on Nemtsov’s life and legacy here.) The ramifications of this shocking event continue to be felt, impacting the stability of Russia’s political power structure, which should be of concern to Putin himself.
Foreign Policy’s Anna Nemtsova elaborates on the interweaving of interests that make up Putin’s power base, and how Nemtsov’s killing has shaken things up. One of those questioned about the attack was Zaur Dadayev, member of an “elite security force” under control of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov. Kadyrov is described in Nemstova’s article as a “brutal autocrat” with close ties to Putin. As a result Kadyrov and his supporters, have been allowed to run Chechnya, and act elsewhere, with near impunity.
That is, until Nemtsov’s murder. Leaders of the national security forces — including the state-operated FSB, the present-day equivalent of the Soviet era KGB — made a strong statement by arresting and questioning Dadayev and other supporters of Kadyrov. Controversially, Kadyrov expressed his displeasure by publicly declaring Dadayev, a main suspect in a murder investigation, a patriot of Russia.
What does this mean for Putin? As political analyst Stanislav Belkovsky put it,
“For the first time in his 15-year long rule Putin has run into a really serious problem: a virtually open conflict between the two pillars of his power, the federal security establishment and Ramzan Kadyrov.”
Putin’s grip on power is largely dependent on support from the security services, but also on good relations with Kadyrov and his ability (or more accurately, willingness) to maintain stability in volatile Chechnya. Now these two are at odds with each other.
For the time being Putin himself has stayed on the sidelines, waiting for the fallout from the standoff. At this points it’s hard to say what the resolution will be. But it seems certain that the stability of Russia’s powerbrokers — and Putin’s main supporters — hangs in the balance.
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