South African Election Violence?

In some ways the run-up to the South African election has all of the characteristics of an internecine squabble turned public. The Congress of the People has its origins in the ruling African National Congress, so it is no surprise that the very fact of that dissidence and the still-ongoing defections from the ANC to COPE, has heightened tensions and resentment, not to mention deep distrust.

Furthermore, as with so much of South African politics in recent years, the divisions do not really result from irreconcilable differences over policy and ideology so much as differences over personality and approach. Just as not one in ten South Africans can articulate serious policy differences between Thabo Mbaki and Jacob Zuma, not many more can articulate diferences between the ANC and COPE. From a policy vantage point, both sides still have to make their case to the voters, though the burden probably falls more heavily on COPE since the newcomers need to make the case as to why people should move away from their support of the ANC, which, given the liberation struggle, is far more than an ordinary political party. In all likelihood, in fact, the party that will suffer most at the hands of COPE will be the Democratic Alliance, with DA losses especially likely from among the party’s black supporters, though observers also wonder which party will garner the support of the country’s burgeoning middle class.

And yet it is precisely because of the internecine nature of the political conflict in South Africa that things have ratcheted up to such a tense level. Underlying the quest for political power is a deep sense of betrayal on both sides. And betrayal brings out visceral emotions and visceral responses. As a result, reports of election-related violence have begun pouring in. Suffice it to say that a serious uptick in violence as the election progresses would represent a horrible step back for the country’s political culture.

Now, it should be pointed out that COPE, at least, believes that many of the reports of violence are themselves overstated and are the result of the ANC concocting tales of chaos and blaming COPE operatives. Furthermore, COPE asserts that the very spreading of these stories might itself prove to foment violent responses. Nonetheless, the weeks preceding the election will bear watching, for the country’s political process really might be at stake.